All signs point to escalation amid Zelensky visit

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky‘s state visit to the UK was a story of tanks, jets, and sanctions. The former comedian, beloved by Western leaders, was greeted upon landing with a hug by UK PM Rishi Sunak. But beneath the warmth, serious business is underway – business which might take us another step closer to nuclear war.

Wings for freedom?

Fighter jets were the hottest topic. Sunak announced that the UK would train Ukrainian pilots ahead of the visit. Zelensky made a point of giving a fighter pilot’s helmet to speaker Lindsay Hoyle during his address to parliament.

Written on the helmet was a request for air power – “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it”:

Ukrainian President Zelensky has presented Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle with a Ukrainian fighter pilot's helmet.

The writing on the helmet reads "we have freedom, give us wings to protect it". pic.twitter.com/PZvVqClPZe

— Alex Tiffin (@RespectIsVital) February 8, 2023

Sunak and Zelensky also took the opportunity for some military cosplay. Both donned pilot’s helmets for part of Zelensky’s visit. However, the photo opportunity drew some choice remarks:

the helmet suits zelensky well
sunak on the other hand.. pic.twitter.com/T2tabSZrNa

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) February 8, 2023

Back to reality

Questions remain about the practicalities of training and equipping Ukrainian pilots. In all likelihood, the jets Ukraine will receive are US F-16’s, which the UK does not operate. This has led to some discussion about the usefulness of training on current British fighter jets.

Also, retired senior military officers said it was unlikely British jets would simply be handed over to Ukraine. On top of this, former British army chief Richard Dannatt questioned the availability of jets:

I am interested to see what the Ministry of Defence can offer. I mean, we don’t have a huge stock of modern fast jets to spare

Tanks are also proving to be a crunch issue. Again, the same questions are being raised about UK training and operability. Zelensky and Sunak visited the training facilities together. Sunak told reporters:

We both know the people of Ukraine’s incredible strength and inspiring bravery will ultimately defeat tyranny. That is why we are training and arming them with the equipment they need to push back Russian forces

It has to be noted that Ukrainian troops are being trained on British Challenger 2’s. Potentially problematically, the most likely tank headed for Ukraine is the German Leopard 1, not the British Challenger 2. However, it is unclear whether the British training is purely tactical, rather than tied to the technical abilities of a particular tank.

Sanctions

Further UK sanctions on Russia were announced ahead of Zelensky’s visit. These claim to target Russian elites and military capacity. The Foreign Office said:

In total the UK’s sanction package hits 6 entities providing military equipment such as drones for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as 8 individuals and 1 entity connected to nefarious financial networks that help maintain wealth and power amongst Kremlin elites.

The firms targeted produce drones, anti-aircraft equipment, and aviation software. They also provide military logistics. Individuals named in the sanctions include senior figures in banking, the media, and oil production. The sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans.

UN censure

In another move which may well have been timed for Zelensky’s visit, the UK’s ambassador to the UN said Russia was entirely to blame for the war in Ukraine.

Ambassador Barbara Woodward told the Security Council:

President, colleagues. Russia is why there isn’t peace in Ukraine.

She added:

In the face of this onslaught, Ukraine has had no choice but to exercise its UN Charter right to defend itself. It has done so resolutely and successfully, but at massive cost to its people and its resources.

Woodward isn’t necessarily wrong. However, hardened rhetoric like this from all sides makes it more difficult to envision a way out of the war for all parties.

The Russian answer

Russia‘s London embassy warned that the provision of jets could have dire consequence for Europe and the world – and said that outcomes would be “on London’s hands”:

Should the #UK decide to provide #Kievregime with fighter jets, the death toll of yet another round of #escalation, as well as its military-political consequences for the European continent and the whole world will be on London’s hands.

➡️ Full comment: https://t.co/1D7zffnxLw pic.twitter.com/XD830VWftg

— Russian Embassy, UK (@RussianEmbassy) February 9, 2023

The embassy’s full statement expands on the warning, saying that if Western jets were used in territory Russia claims:

Russia will know how to respond to any unfriendly actions by the British side.

Belligerent parties

The Russian embassy is often bombastic in its commentary. And yet the spectre of nuclear war continues to loom over Ukraine. One European defence expert warned that the US did not approve of the UK’s pledges to Ukraine.

Nick Witney told The I newspaper:

The US has just said it does not want this, so Britain’s plans could be seen as a huge annoyance for Washington.

Jets in particular are likely to antagonise Russia, he said:

Jets are ultimately more escalator than ground weapons, as they can reach far further. They may get very antsy about it. But they won’t do anything more than before.

The UK ambassador wasn’t wrong in her assertion that Russia is the primary aggressor here. Yet the question for people who hold both Russian and Western expansionism in contempt is how we stop a cast of self-serving leaders tipping us all into nuclear war.

Featured image via Wikimedia Commons/Simon Dawson, cropped to 770 x 403, licenced under CC BY 2.0.