Labour crops poll showing they’re level with the Greens

On 24 February 2026, a poll came out suggesting Labour, the Green Party, and Reform are neck and neck in the Gorton by-election.

Throughout the race, Labour have claimed they’re the only ones who can beat Reform. As such, it’s not surprising to see them report on the poll like this:

🚨BREAKING: new poll suggests there is just one point between Labour and Reform in Gorton and Denton.

Every vote will count on Thursday. Back Labour and choose unity over Reform’s division. pic.twitter.com/q8ocoMqKCP

— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) February 24, 2026

Momentum

For reference, here’s what the poll looks like with the Greens and other parties included:

Data tables will be published by Opinium tomorrow pic.twitter.com/RMUJHHUW52

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) February 24, 2026

Labour have created a paradox for themselves here.

On the one hand, they want you to believe this poll is accurate; on the other, they want you to think they’re the only ones who can beat Reform.

Which is it?

The poll also shows something else, and it’s that the Greens have the momentum.

This is what the vote share looked like in the 2024 election:

Should the Opinium poll play out it would mean the parties experienced the following shifts:

• Greens: 10% <<< 28%
• Reform:  9% <<< 27%
• Labour: 50% >>> 28%

Obviously this means voters have abandoned Labour to vote Green (or Reform). So at this stage in the race, which of the two options do you think is most likely?

• Seeing the way the wind is blowing, more voters abandon Labour for the Greens.
• The voters who abandoned Labour decide to un-abandon them despite polling showing the Greens seem most likely to win.

People clocked what Labour are up to anyway, including former Canary contributor Curtis Daly:

You absolute scum bags, you literally cropped the Greens out https://t.co/nuG4XkGsDT pic.twitter.com/MGDNco1sdP

— Curtis Daly (@CurtisDaly_) February 24, 2026

lmao they literally just removed the Green Party — at 28% and 30% to Labour's 28% among likely voters in this same poll — from the picture. https://t.co/qyoFn0A7Mc

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) February 24, 2026

All to play for

Journalist Barry Malone said this polling may clarify why Starmer turned up to support the Gorton & Denton race:

This’ll be why Starmer showed up. https://t.co/5Wuk478yd7

— Barry Malone (@malonebarry) February 24, 2026

We noted yesterday that it was strange for Starmer to show up given his record unpopularity. He’s so unliked, in fact, that he tends to turn voters against whatever he supports, which is why we covered it as follows:

Everything Keir Starmer touches turns to shit, so why has he turned up in Gorton & Denton to give his candidate a last minute endorsement?

By @willem_moore_uk https://t.co/pjRJuod9BT

— Canary (@TheCanaryUK) February 24, 2026

Clearly, Starmer thinks there’s a shot at victory, and he wants to pretend it came because of him – not despite of him.

If the Opinium poll is correct, Labour are doing better than we expected. At the same time, this is clearly a party in decline. And if they do lose, expect the rumours of a leadership challenge against Starmer to increase.

Featured image via Barold