China has saved the global oil market amid Trump’s war on Iran

A prominent oil analyst has claimed that China’s dramatic reduction in crude oil imports since the US/Israel war of choice on Iran helped prevent a full-blown global energy shock.

Real demand for oil plateauing in China

In an interview with German DW, oil analyst Rory Johnston said:

According to Reuters, since the unprovoked war on Iran began ​at the ​end ⁠of February, overall U.S. inventories, including commercial ​and SPR stocks, have ​fallen ⁠by 120.71 million barrels to 734 million barrels as ⁠of ​June 26, the ​lowest since 1984.

Bloomberg quoted Vortexa’s figures, estimating that Chinese seaborne oil imports plunged last month to a decade low of 5.9 million barrels a day, down about 50% from prewar levels.

Vox explained:

To put it simply, there are millions of more barrels per day for other countries to import than anyone thought was possible.

According to Citi analyst Francesco Martoccia, they have been constantly arguing that real demand for oil in China is plateauing.

He told CNBC recently that last year, for instance, 900,000 barrels a day of oil demand was for Chinese strategic reserves, and that they were not sure whether this demand would return.

Eroding Western fossil advantage

Johnston pointed out to DW that Beijing’s concerted policy effort to dominate renewable energy technologies, from photovoltaics to lithium-ion batteries, has made China “ambidextrous” across the entire energy space.

He argued that while the West has long prided itself on fossil fuel dominance, China has been quietly building an equally formidable position on the demand side, saying: