The real reason things are about to get even bloodier in Syria [Part II]

Support us and go ad-free

Control of Aleppo is the endgame for the long-term survival of the Assad regime. The military now has the upper hand in Syria’s second most important city – a former national commercial hub. And that is largely the case because the regime believes peace (on its terms) will only come through a decisive military victory.

The push for Aleppo

Such a commitment to a military solution means the fight in Aleppo is about to get much bloodier. More people will die. And more of the city will be destroyed. Only after this will ‘peace’ return to Syria; and those dictating this peace will be the Syrian government and its prime guarantor – the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).

Castle Damascus’ (the security arch which protects the capital and main arteries to other major government strongholds) will extend through the country up to the Turkish border. The SAA will then mop up the remaining insurgents locked within its extended security ‘Castle’ from south to north (Damascus to Aleppo). After this, it will continue from west to east throughout Syria’s traditionally Sunni mid-section. Finally, ‘the race to Raqqa’ (the Daesh (Isis/Isil) capital) will start.

Military intelligence

I will base many of my forthcoming dispatches on information I gained from a conference I attended in early November. The British Syrian Society facilitated the conference, which has already attracted some controversy. This is something I intend to address in later commentary.

At the conference, US and British military analysts revealed that Russian and American talks (now collapsed) will not amount to anything, even if they restart with some promise of substantive ‘results’. Syrian (and Russian) officials, meanwhile, believe that the only intention behind humanitarian ceasefire talks is to stall a decisive regime victory. Washington will simply keep suggesting talks as a form of political window-dressing aimed at ‘saving face’ morally.

As for the West, neither the UK nor the US have the political will to impose a proposed ‘No Fly Zone’ (NFZ). The Obama Administration is clearly content on ‘punting’ the Syrian policy nightmare to the next administration. Obama will not risk his own legacy (as a Nobel prize-winning president) to start an all-out military confrontation with Russia. Especially when US national security is not directly at stake. In fact, the current strategic landscape in Syria has as much to do with the domestic politics of the two competing superpowers (and the upcoming US election) as it does with anything else.

What that means

In short, the ultimate outcome in Syria seems at this point like it will only be decided on the ground. And this is bad news for the innocent men, women and children caught in the crossfire. Each side, meanwhile, will use civilian atrocities to blame the other; war propaganda will continue to be thick – as has been the case with all civil wars. Any person or government with truly humanitarian interests will need to recognise this, and take appropriate action to encourage de-escalation.

Read on...

Support us and go ad-free

Stay tuned for [Part III] in our series of articles from the ground in Syria.

Get Involved!

– Join your local Stop the War Coalition to oppose further escalation in Syria.

– Read and spread Conflict Armament Research documentation of the illegal weapons trade in Syria and Iraq.

– Read The Canary‘s previous articles on Syria at The Canary Global.

Support The Canary so we can keep holding the powerful to account.

Featured image via Thierry Ehrmann/Flickr

Support us and go ad-free

We need your help to keep speaking the truth

Every story that you have come to us with; each injustice you have asked us to investigate; every campaign we have fought; each of your unheard voices we amplified; we do this for you. We are making a difference on your behalf.

Our fight is your fight. You’ve supported our collective struggle every time you gave us a like; and every time you shared our work across social media. Now we need you to support us with a monthly donation.

We have published nearly 2,000 articles and over 50 films in 2021. And we want to do this and more in 2022 but we don’t have enough money to go on at this pace. So, if you value our work and want us to continue then please join us and be part of The Canary family.

In return, you get:

* Advert free reading experience
* Quarterly group video call with the Editor-in-Chief
* Behind the scenes monthly e-newsletter
* 20% discount in our shop

Almost all of our spending goes to the people who make The Canary’s content. So your contribution directly supports our writers and enables us to continue to do what we do: speaking truth, powered by you. We have weathered many attempts to shut us down and silence our vital opposition to an increasingly fascist government and right-wing mainstream media.

With your help we can continue:

* Holding political and state power to account
* Advocating for the people the system marginalises
* Being a media outlet that upholds the highest standards
* Campaigning on the issues others won’t
* Putting your lives central to everything we do

We are a drop of truth in an ocean of deceit. But we can’t do this without your support. So please, can you help us continue the fight?

The Canary Support us

Comments are closed