Labour overtake Reform in a national poll for first time since 2025

In a further sign that the public is responding positively to Andy Burnham, Labour has topped Reform in a national poll for the first time since mid-2025:

🚨 POLL | With Burnham, Labour LEAD

🔴 Lab: 27% ( +4 )
➡️ Ref: 26% ( –1 )
🔵 Con: 19% ( –1 )
🟢 Grn: 11% ( –2 )
🟠 Lib: 11% ( – )

Poll: BMG Research, 23 – 24 June
––
(+/– vs standard voting intention) pic.twitter.com/FcysgjQIOk

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) June 29, 2026

Can Burnham hold on to this lead? We’ve got serious doubts about that. But for now, things do seem to be shifting in his favour.

The Burnham bounce

As the Independent reported in February, Reform UK pulled ahead of Labour and the Tories in May 2025. Farage’s bunch then held on to that lead for more than a year. This was with multiple pollsters too, including:

BMG, FindOutNow, FocalData, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Survation, TechneUK and YouGov.

Politico’s Poll of Polls (an aggregate of all the pollsters) actually has Reform ahead from April 2025:

Notably, Reform still leads Labour in the aggregate. But there are signs that Farage’s party is on the slide. As we reported, several recent polls have shown Reform losing its lead, even if Labour isn’t always doing better. In some cases, the gap has diminished significantly:

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (-3)
LAB: 21% (+6)
CON: 18% (=)
GRN: 15% (-2)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 24-25 Jun.
Changes w/ 17 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 25, 2026

This likely isn’t all down to Burnham, and other factors include:

• The endless controversies surrounding Reform, including Farage’s £5m gift scandal.
• The Greens essentially sitting out the Makerfield by-election, meaning they faded from national attention just as Labour started talking in more progressive tones.

We say ‘progressive tones’ because that’s all we’re getting from Burnham – vibes and insinuations. As we’ve covered, that doesn’t mean the public won’t respond well – at least for a while. Starmer didn’t just fail to deliver; he failed to inspire. If Burnham can do the latter, he may get something of a honeymoon period before the public starts to ask ‘how come I’m not any better off?‘

Our assumption is that things won’t get materially better under Burnham because we’ve listened to what he’s offering. Like the Greens, we wanted to hear some of the following in his big policy speech; like them, Burnham left us disappointed:

Three demands for Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham: Will he tax wealth? Fix our broken voting system? And end the gutting of local services?

The challenges facing our country require real change. pic.twitter.com/9fdbH4ICtU

— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) June 30, 2026

We’ve no doubt all this is why Burnham’s favourability has suffered from his prolonged exposure to the public:

Andy Burnham's net favourability rating has returned to -11, having briefly ticked up to -4 after the Makerfield by-election victory

The 43% of Britons with an unfavourable view of Burnham is the highest level to date (32% are favourable) pic.twitter.com/2H9tB7MgqL

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 29, 2026

As others have noted, we’ve seen what a Burnham administration looks like in Manchester:

Burnham gave £1 Billion in public money to private developers to create just 500 "affordable" homes out of 11,000 units – so when it comes to this promise of a council house building programme; I'll believe it when I fucking see it mate. https://t.co/4ZRBfrRg2L

— Marl Karx (@BareLeft) June 29, 2026

People are hoping that Burnham will make the country more affordable, but his stint in Manchester demonstrated he’s just as likely to turn every city into London.

Same old

Burnham may be more in key than Starmer, but he’s whistling the same tune. And when the public realise that song is Things Can Only Get Better, things are going to take a turn.

Featured image via the Canary