Poll suggests Burnham would eliminate Reform’s lead as PM

As everyone knows, Andy Burnham is angling to replace Keir Starmer as PM. And if recent polling proves accurate, it seems like a third of the public support him:

Westminster Voting Intention [Burnham as Leader]:

LAB: 30% (+8)
RFM: 27% (-2)
CON: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-4)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 15-19 May.
Changes w/ Standard VI.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 20, 2026

The question is whether Burnham will actually change much in office.

The Burnham bounce

The first thing we should note is that the poll is from More in Common. This pollster has had both Labour and Reform performing better than some others:

The following is from YouGov:

The Tories, Greens, and Labour are so close that you can’t even see their numbers above (Labour is on 17%, the Greens are on 15%, and the Tories are on 18%).

Politico’s poll of polls, meanwhile, collates all the polls into one, showing:

In other words, Labour wouldn’t be leading Reform in every poll, even if every pollster recorded the same eight point boost. Still, that boost is nothing to sneeze at, and it demonstrates that the key issue Labour has right now is Keir Starmer (at least as far as the public is concerned).

What it doesn’t demonstrate, however, is that Labour would be back to full strength under Andy Burnham.

How the mighty have fallen

Lest we forget, if Burnham wins 30% of the vote, that would be two percentage points fewer than Jeremy Corbyn achieved in 2019 (and ten points fewer than he achieved in 2017). Don’t get us wrong – Labour’s loss in 2019 was disastrous, but it only produced such a gargantuan majority for the Tories because of our unfair electoral system (what’s known as ‘First Past the Post’ (FPTP)).

As the Electoral Reform Society have highlighted:

Burnham has spoken about replacing FPTP with proportional representation – a system in which the number of MPs more closely resembles how people voted. Unfortunately, he also said such a change should only be made after a general election. In other words, should he become PM, he wouldn’t implement it.

🚨BREAKING | Andy Burnham confirms he will NOT scrap first-past-the-post before #GE2029

Burnham said electoral reform must be "in a manifesto", and revealed he does NOT back proportional representation, instead praising the non-proportional Supplementary Vote (SV)

Via @itvnews pic.twitter.com/wO40XxnR4K

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 17, 2026

The question is this: what would Burnham change in office?

Several outlets have reported that Burnham would ‘renationalise’ key industries, but he actually said he’d put them under “stronger public control” (he also hasn’t confirmed he’d do this before the next general election). He’s additionally refused to comment on wealth taxes.

If Burnham replaces Starmer and changes nothing besides the vibes, the poll bounce won’t last. And as much as we’d love to be one month away from a prime minister who renationalises the shit out of everything, we’re not seeing much sign of that happening.

Make him speak

As stated, Burnham is running to become PM. Everyone knows this. So the media needs to be asking him what he has planned, and Burnham needs to answer.

Andy Burnham – you have been warned – there is every reason to think Labour’s polling could drop to the single digits if you carry on failing to deliver.

Featured image via Getty Images (Lewis Storey) / Getty Images (Dan Kitwood)