Trump’s war on Iran sends fertilizer prices soaring

Fertilizer prices globally are rising since the war on Iran and “are poised to surge even higher,” potentially taking “months and months” to normalize even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

One third of global fertilizer trade – along with 35 per cent of crude oil and a fifth of liquified natural gas – passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Many countries affected

India, the world’s top urea importer, is now paying $935 to $959 per ton, up nearly 90% from the $490 pre-war price, India’s Economic Times reported.

The UN said that planting season would end in May for most countries in Africa, making the loss of fertilizer at this time “significant and severe.” The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push 45 million more people into hunger and starvation, according to the UN’s World Food Program:

The planting season has already started, and in most countries in Africa it will end in May. So, if we don’t get some solution immediately, the crisis will be very significant and severe, particularly for the poorest countries and for the poorest citizens.

The UN said some of the most fertilizer-dependent countries were already highly vulnerable due to previous shocks, including Sudan, Somalia, Mozambique, Kenya, and Sri Lanka.

Advice to UK farmers

It is not just Asia and Africa. Even in the UK, advice is being given out to use fertilizer more efficiently. Farmers Guide reported that:

the most profitable strategy is usually about using nitrogen more efficiently, rather than applying more of it.

In the USA too, Responsible Statecraft noted that “Trump risks war backlash from the heartland: American farmers,” with fertilizer costs up.

The FT has reported similar findings, saying:

Across the US, farmers are reeling from a huge surge in the price of crop nutrients triggered by the Iran war — at a time when the economics of farming were already under pressure

This was an ill-thought-out war by Trump and his allies in Israel and the UK. The severe and dire consequences will hit their own voters, too.