A decline in Gaza’s population of more than 10% could mean the loss of more than 200,000 lives

In what is considered one of the most serious estimates since the outbreak of war in October 2023, the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights has suggested that Palestinian deaths in Gaza may have exceeded 200,000. The estimate is based on data indicating a population decline of more than 10% in recent months.

If confirmed, the figure would call into question current casualty estimates. It would also raise serious concerns about the gap between published statistics and the reality on the ground.

Gaza’s population decline opens the door to shocking possibilities

Stuart Casey-Maslen, head of the Academy’s International Humanitarian Law Focus Project, told Anadolu Agency that the recorded population decline could indicate the loss of around 200,000 people. He stressed that the figures announced so far “do not reflect the full extent of human losses.”

He explained that the officially documented toll includes only bodies that have been found or registered. An unknown number of victims may remain under rubble or in inaccessible areas. He said

We will need time to know the exact number. But it is clear that we are facing a huge human loss, and it is necessary to know how these people were killed.

According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, documented deaths have reached 72,037, with more than 171,000 injured. The ministry notes that thousands of victims have not yet been recovered due to ongoing destruction and limited rescue access.

International report monitors Gaza among 23 armed conflicts

Maslen’s comments were included in the Academy’s War Watch report, which assessed Gaza and the West Bank alongside 23 other global conflicts over the past 18 months.

The report states that conditions in Gaza remain extremely dangerous. This is despite a decline in large-scale clashes compared to the most intense periods of fighting.

Maslen said the absence of widespread hostilities seen before last year’s ceasefire “does not mean that the suffering of the population has ended.” He stressed that people “are still dying in Gaza.”

He added that wounded civilians in need of urgent evacuation face severe shortages of food, water, shelter, and healthcare. He called for a significant increase in humanitarian aid and guaranteed, unhindered access.

Exceptional destruction and years of reconstruction

Turning to reconstruction, Maslen described the scale of destruction as “exceptional.” He said returning life to pre-October 2023 levels will take years, not months, and require billions of dollars in investment.

He emphasised that rebuilding critical infrastructure demands long-term international commitment. This must go beyond emergency relief to comprehensive development planning.

Legal characterisation and pending accountability

In legal terms, Maslen noted that the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry previously concluded that genocide had taken place in Gaza, though it did not specify a timeframe.

He also pointed out that in November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant. The charges relate to alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Maslen criticised sanctions imposed on several ICC judges in connection with those warrants. He argued that such measures undermine international justice rather than support it.

He concluded that the attacks carried out by Hamas on 7 October 2023 cannot justify the scale of human losses that followed. He called for genuine legal accountability for events over the past two years.

Between limited official figures and alarming population estimates, the situation in Gaza remains unresolved. The true scale of human loss may be far greater than current records suggest.

Featured image via Wafa News Agency