‘Schrodinger’s militia’ — confusion about Kurdish entry into Iran war swirls

Some Kurdish factions are going to start a popular uprising in Iran – least, that’s what Trump hopes – reimagining them as guerrilla shock troops for his aerial war against Iran. The CIA may have been organising them for months to storm Iran’s ramparts. The internet is abuzz with these rumours, so let’s unpack some of them.

Firstly, their accuracy so far is tenuous – something we’re accustomed to. In a fast-paced, rapidly globalising war mired in inaccuracy, rumour, propaganda, and outright bullshit, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.

The furore started with a CNN report by war correspondent Clarissa Ward, aired on 4 March. It’s worth noting that, in recent years, Ward has faced criticism over the veracity of reporting on Gaza and Syria.

CNN‘s piece opened with a weighty claim:

The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN.

The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support.

The source? Well, they were on many occasions, they were literally just – nameless “sources”. And some key claims weren’t even attributed to ofifical agencies such as the CIA – but we appreciate these are “state secrets.”

The article, which can be accessed here, also claims that:

CIA support for Iranian Kurdish groups began several months before the war, one of the sources and a senior Kurdistan Regional Government official said.

A unnamed Kurdish official…well that narrows it down.

The anonymisation of security and military sources is, in itself, not uncommon. But CNN’s core assertions have been picked apart by journalists, experts and politicians with extensive knowledge of Kurdish politics.

Are they coming or not?

As rumours proliferate, journalist Mark Ames asked:

Never seen a covert CIA separatist military operation so heavily advertised as it's happening, as widely and loudly as they can PR it. You'd almost think CIA was running a deception operation here, to stoke IRI paranoia and get them to massacre local Kurdshttps://t.co/Q00UC4isOM

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) March 4, 2026

And he might have a point. It’s worth noting here that this isn’t the first time US President Donald Trump has publicly announced ‘covert’ operations.

He did the same ahead of the 3 January raid in Caracas, Venezuela.

Trump announced CIA were deploying inside Venezuela on 15 October 2025. https://t.co/7RZ8MMvr3x pic.twitter.com/YIqxZcMW1w

— the great Keithulhu (@jjgjourno) January 4, 2026

We can’t know if this was the US Yapper-in-Chief Trump running his mouth, again, or part of a planned strategy or a veiled threat. Nor do we know how Trump’s announcement was received by the CIA itself.

On X, the questions multiplied, with Journalist Afshin, engaging in on-the-ground fact checking efforts.

I spoke with four Iranian Kurdish officials, and they denied the report that any ground offensive started. https://t.co/EFPIDurpFa

— Afshin Ismaeli (@Afshin_Ismaeli) March 4, 2026

Wladimir van Wilgenburg, a Dutch reporter specialising in Kurdish affairs, suggested that while some Kurds have stated they may fight, mobilisation hadn’t commenced.

I spoke to senior PJAK official, who denied this.

"I think they are wrong when they say that we have already started the war now, but we are preparing for the right opportunity." https://t.co/RjavebKOPs

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) March 4, 2026

Another Middle East-based US journalist Matthew Petti exposes similar gaps in US media coverage of Trump’s Kurdish shock troops.

Every American outlet is reporting based on "administration sources" that the Kurdish offensive has started while journalist who's plugged into Kurdistan is denying it. Something's up.

— Matthew Petti (@matthew_petti) March 4, 2026

So what is happening?

As one X wit put it, we’re faced with:

Schrödinger’s Kurdish militia

— Daniel Bordman (@DanielBordmanOG) March 4, 2026

Meanwhile ex-CIA director Mike Pompeo — who made unverified and inflammatory claims about Mossad being among the protestors during the January uprising in Iran — said:

The Kurds have been invaluable partners to the US in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East. It makes perfect sense for us to work with them to unseat this evil dictatorship. https://t.co/fTYeysSrfw

— Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) March 4, 2026

Anyone with the slightest knowledge of America’s long history of using and discarding the Kurds, like some burner phone, might disagree with Pompeo’s post.

As Drop Site News reporter Alexis Daloumis was not convinced that the Kurds were about to pull the trigger:

🚨NEW from @Dropsite: Kurdish, Iranian sources reject claims of incursion

Multiple media reports, including some citing anonymous U.S. officials, have indicated that Kurdish militants have now crossed from Iraq into Iran in order to seize Kurdish territory and spark an uprising.…

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 4, 2026

Drop Site News speculates that:

These reports may be aimed at sparking an uprising that is not yet happening. Reporters for CNN, Axios, and the Economist, some of whom are well sourced with the U.S. security establishment, have been leading sources of the claims. U.S. and Israeli officials have made no secret that they want to create conditions for an internal uprising to implement their regime change agenda on the ground.

Kurdish Peace Institute director Meghan Bodette was not convinced either:

The KDP and the PUK are, and I cannot stress this enough, never going to invade Iran. Let's not comment on this if we can't find Erbil on a map. https://t.co/cY9EXu3HUS

— Meghan Bodette (@_____mjb) March 5, 2026

Bodette also tweeted a useful explainer thread of Kurdish politics:

🧵Kurdish regional politics explainer, from someone who is based in the region and can speak the language.

— Meghan Bodette (@_____mjb) March 5, 2026

Breaking Points presenter Krystal Ball had a similar view, warning of ‘psy-ops’:

Very important reminder to beware of all the many psyops we are already being subjected to. https://t.co/JPW42zfBuU

— Krystal Ball (@krystalball) March 5, 2026

Ryan Grim, from Drop Site News, warned that the suggestion of Kurdish uprising might be a ploy to drag Iranian forces in a particular direction.

This is precisely what the CIA was hoping to provoke by leaking reports of an uprising and invasion that isn’t happening https://t.co/i9jNvcBmQ5

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) March 4, 2026

Commenting on those strikes, Erbil-based member of Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Hemn Hawrami said:

Reports about the Kurdistan Region of Iraq or the Iraqi Kurds being a part of a plan to arm & support the Iranian Kurdish opposition to cross the borders into Iran 4 an arm struggle is incorrect & false. We are not a part of this war & our goal is to preserve, maintain peace and security of our region & beyond.

In the meantime we condemn these unjustifiable attacks on Kurdistan & call on the international community to help us and stop this aggression and protect our region.

Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, commenting on the pitfalls of a possible Kurdish-led revolt in Iran said:

An ethnic-based insurgency, however, is unlikely to attract broad support across Iran’s population. It will also raise immediate alarm in Ankara. Turkey has long opposed U.S. cooperation with Kurdish armed groups in Syria and will certainly view the emergence of a U.S.-backed Kurdish militant foothold inside Iran with equal concern.

Extreme caution advised

Misinformation, disinformation, and the language of ‘false flags’ and ‘psy-ops’ have become ubiquitous — especially on social media. The Canary previously wrote that there’s a delicate balance to be struck between citing and challenging state sources, especially “anonymous” security sources:

Anything uttered by unnamed ‘security sources’ must be taken with extreme caution.

We must always ask a crucial question when confronted with seductive ‘insider’ information:

It might not be the case here, but one of the key media stories of the War on Terror era is that journalists often fail to ask the key question: Why are spies telling me this?

The warning is clear:

Don’t be bedazzled, mainstream media journos. Intelligence agents, agencies and their spokespeople are not your friends. Contest everything they say.

Additionally, we should remember that Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Turkey and a broader diaspora (who should never be flattened into a single political bloc) are once again caught up in an imperialist war they did not choose.

Let’s recall the US and Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

States, corporations, and political groups—all of them, even those we might feel some misguided affinity for—lie and deceive in peacetime, and even more so during war. In a situation as explosive as the one the US and Israel have thrust the world into, reporters have to take extra caution.

Anything can be newsworthy, even a rumour, but the basic rule still stands: if you can’t prove it, don’t report it as fact.

Featured image via the Canary