“$1bn a day!”: What Trump’s runaway war with Iran is costing Americans

US President Donald Trump’s war may be costing Americans $1bn a day. As the US switches from ‘smart’ bombs to ‘gravity’ bombs there are questions about where this runaway conflict is going. And now an esteemed air power scholar has warned the Americans are stuck in a strategic trap.

The US and Israel attacked Iran first on 28 February without provocation. Iran was offering unprecedented concessions in negotiations at the time. The Pentagon has since stated there was no imminent threat from Iran. And the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, has said there is no evidence Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

Atlantic reporter Nancy Youssef posted on X on 4 March:

The preliminary Pentagon cost estimate of the war in Iran is $1 billion a day, a congressional official told me.

— Nancy Youssef, نانسي يوسف (@nancyayoussef) March 4, 2026

An anonymous official’s comment must be taken with a pinch of salt. But the debate about the cost and nature of this attack is urgent. And let’s be clear, this war isn’t ending anytime soon.

On 4 March, US Congress turned their backs on peace and left Trump unchecked:

US Senate Republicans backed President Trump's military campaign against Iran, voting to block a bipartisan resolution aiming to stop the air war ​and require that any hostilities against Iran be authorized by Congress https://t.co/1KivKwJfyS pic.twitter.com/9KbMnsvVoP

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 5, 2026

Not that the Iranians – who say they were stabbed in the back when the 28 February attack came amid fruitful talks – are in the mood to get back around the table:

Iran says it did not request negotiations with US https://t.co/Rf4aoDkMQO https://t.co/Rf4aoDkMQO

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 28, 2026

Iranian deputy foreign minister Esmail Baghaei explained the Iranian position at length on 4 March:

Trump in over his head

The Costs of War Project have been trying to estimate what the attack will cost the US taxpayer:

Operations against Iran's nuclear facilities last year cost $2-2.25 billion.

This war will likely cost far more. https://t.co/QTfp0EGDEn pic.twitter.com/B8tdSjoIHA

— The Costs of War Project (@CostsOfWar) March 4, 2026

It’s much easier to say who the beneficiaries of the US-Iran war are going to be: arms firms.

Northrop Grumman's share price rose 6% yesterday, increasing its market value by billions of dollars in just one day of trading. https://t.co/CqiF6rP2Wx

— The Costs of War Project (@CostsOfWar) March 4, 2026

The war is changing character, possibly due to depletion of ammunition stocks. US Democrats raised concerns on 4 March that:

 the US has been burning through interceptors to defend against ballistic missiles launched by Iran.

Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine acknowledged:

that concern, a person familiar with the matter said, even as he expressed confidence in stockpile levels in public.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said the US was moving away from ‘stand-off’ weapons towards gravity-based bombs:

The Hill reported:

Hegseth noted that the U.S. had largely been using standoff munitions — such as cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles fired from ships or ground positions — in the campaign so far.

Hegseth said:

More bombers, fighters are arriving just today. And now with complete control of the skies, we will be using 500-pound, 1000-pound and 2000-pound GPS-and-laser-guided precision gravity bombs, which we have a nearly unlimited stockpile.

Gravity bombs are a more conventional form of munition which is dropped from an aircraft rather than fired. B-2’s will arrive at a UK airbase within days on their way to Iran. The UK’s role deepens by the day.

This never works

Professor Robert Pape, a highly-regarded American expert on air warfare, posted on X:

THE SMART BOMB TRAP IS BECOMING A DUMB BOMB

The war is widening.
Not rhetorically.
Operationally.

And the reason is technical — but the consequences are strategic.

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 4, 2026

Pape told Time magazine on 3 March:

In announcing the goal of regime change through air power alone, President Trump is up against the weight of history. Not just Iran, but the weight of history. For over a century, states—including the United States, European states, Russia, and Israel—have tried to topple regimes with air power alone. It has never—and I’m choosing my words carefully—it has never worked.

You can read his Substack or listen to more of his analysis here:

As this domestically unpopular war expands rapidly without a plan, the costs in lives and dollars will expand too. Experts insist Trump has chosen the wrong tactic in using air power. A shift to old-fashioned bombs hints at depletion of stock. Meanwhile, the Iranians understandably say they consider this an existential war.

Featured image via the Canary