Reform is losing its lead according to polls

Keir Starmer has resigned, and Andy Burnham is set to replace him. As we’ve reported previously, this has not led to a sudden reversal of Labour’s fortunes. As time goes on, however, we are starting to see Reform losing its lead:

🚨BREAKING | Labour surge in latest poll 🧐

➡️ Ref: 24% ( –3 )
🔴 Lab: 21% ( +6 )
🟢 Grn: 15% ( –2 )
🔵 Con: 18% ( +1 )
🟠 Lib: 12% ( –1 )

Poll: @FindoutnowUK, 24-25 June
––
(+/– vs 17 June) pic.twitter.com/p4llFWk1CX

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) June 25, 2026

Is this all down to Burnham?

Or is Reform doing just as much to damage its own brand as Labour is?

Reform’s fading fortunes

When Burnham returned to parliament, the Labour Party behaved like they’d won a brand new majority:

🚨 PICTURED: Andy Burnham takes a selfie with Labour MPs pic.twitter.com/BbiHgIJwTm

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 22, 2026

The initial polling showed no positive change, with YouGov putting Reform at 25% (+1) and Labour at 18% (-). Other polls, though, have mostly shown that Reform is on the slide, even if Labour isn’t always on the up:

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 28% (-1)
CON: 22% (+1)
LAB: 21% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 10% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 19-22 Jun.
Changes w/ 12-15 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 24, 2026

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (-3)
LAB: 21% (+6)
CON: 18% (=)
GRN: 15% (-2)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 24-25 Jun.
Changes w/ 17 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 25, 2026

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 23% (+2)
CON: 20% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-1)

Via @BMGResearch, 23-24 Jun.
Changes w/ 26-28 May.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 26, 2026

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 26% (-1)
LAB: 21% (+1)
CON: 17% (-1)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 12% (-2)
RES: 6% (New)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 24-26 Jun.
Changes w/ 17-19 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 27, 2026

Individual polls can’t be read as gospel, but they can give us an idea of what direction things are trending in. If multiple pollsters show that Reform is losing support, then it likely is – especially if this repeats over successive weeks and months.

So what’s causing this?

The ‘Burnham Bounce’ could be a factor, although we still have little idea of what the man has planned. Other factors include:

Nigel Farage’s various financial scandals, including the £5m ‘gift’ from a foreign-based crypto billionaire.
Farage ducking the press because of the above, meaning the party is less able to capture the public’s attention.

Reform UK's former chairman says Nigel Farage needs a 'break' from 'ruthless' politics https://t.co/PDOWQuDz6v

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) June 26, 2026

Rumours that Farage may actually have to step down because of all this (or even go to prison).

Inside Reform some people are starting to think the unthinkable. That they may have to fight the next election without Nigel Farage > Mail Plus > https://t.co/FQ19CTbPe1

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 27, 2026

Running a sexist candidate in the Makerfield by-election – a sexist who refused to apologise for his sexism, pissing off local people and women at large.
Barely showing up to parliament to do their jobs.
Losing votes to their right because of Restore Britain.
Underperforming in successive important by-elections, highlighting how vulnerable the party is to tactical voting.

There’s also Reform’s many other day-to-day scandals, including this:

Personally, we wouldn't vote for Jimmy Saville under any circumstances; these Reform councillors don't seem to have the same conviction

By @willem_moore_uk https://t.co/llhnLf5P3D

— Canary (@TheCanaryUK) June 16, 2026

It will get worse

Reform UK is facing challenges from all sides, and we expect things to get worse before the next general election. If Farage has to step down, the problems will magnify, because – let’s face it – the party has always been the Nigel Farage Show.

All good shows come to an end, and this one was never very good in the first place.

Featured image via the Canary