Reform absolutely BODIED in Makerfield by-election

The United Kingdom has had another by-election, and yet again, the supposed next party of government – Reform – has been bodied:

🚨 BREAKING: Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election

🔴 LAB: 24,937 (+6,725) – 54.8%
➡️ REF: 15,696 (+2,893) – 34.5%
🟣 RES: 3,111 (NEW) – 6.8%
🔵 CON: 997 (-3,382) – 2.2%
🟢 GRN: 308 (-1,468) – 0.7%
🔶 LD: 163 (-2,572) – 0.4%

Changes w/ 2024
58.75% turnout

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 19, 2026

As we’ll get into, though, it’s not just Reform who lost here.

Reform (not) winning here

Labour – and specifically Andy Burnham – didn’t just beat Reform; they beat the entire right vote combined. As Mikey Smith of the Mirror highlighted:

If you’d consumed any news about the Makerfield by-election, you’d have been given the impression it was close.

It was not.

If you add Reform, Restore and Tory votes together, Labour still beat them by 5,000 votes.

Makerfield result

Quite remarkable Sky graphic – the “progressive” vote vs the “right” vote

* Burnham got more than 50%
* Burnham united the progressive vote.
* Huge squeeze of other parties.
* Reform plus Restore < Labour pic.twitter.com/s3MAieNEl5

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 19, 2026

While there’s hope in the above, there’s also reason to be concerned. Reform UK and Restore Britain are both far-right parties. A decade ago, it would have been unimaginable to see them doing this well. In other words, if Burnham becomes PM and does Starmerism 2.0, don’t be surprised if things get even worse.

As noted, Burnham has overperformed even the most optimistic projections. On 18 June, we reported that Stats for Lefties’ final estimate looked like this:

‼️FINAL ESTIMATE | Makerfield by-election:

🔴 Lab: 47% (+1)
➡️ Ref: 39% (+8)
⚫️ Res: 7% (+7)

Labour HOLD (3% swing to Reform)

+/- vs GE2024 pic.twitter.com/RVQLUunQ2G

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) June 17, 2026

This estimate was based on by-election polls and weighted for other recent results. So what we’re seeing is that the ‘Burnham bounce’ is greater than the best predictions so far. That’s good news for the ‘King in the North’, but this vote of confidence doesn’t mean he’s going to get an easy ride. The typical honeymoon periods politicians used to enjoy barely exists anymore, and as we’ve reported, Burnham doesn’t seem to have a coherent plan for government:

• Burnham ‘to support’ Mahmood’s racist immigration changes.
• Burnham is silent on wealth taxes – not a promising sign from potential PM.
• Andy Burnham’s role with Iain Duncan Smith’s think tank just shows he’s more of the same.
• Burnham WON’T back proportional representation this parliament.
• Shapeshifting Burnham ditches trans rights to panic-grab Reform votes.
• Burnham slammed for saying he won’t renationalise Thames Water.
• Burnham calls for ‘safe routes’ then agrees with Farage in muddled interview.
• Green candidate calls out genocide as Burnham sits on fence.
• Andy U-Turnham has already abandoned the Waspi women.

Of course, there’s also a chance Burnham doesn’t run for Labour leader (and therefore PM). We’ve not fully calculated what those chances are, but so far we’re at 0.000000000000000…%

Hat trick

There have been three ‘make-or-break’ by-elections in the past 12 months, and each one has seen Reform crashing on the rocks. The first of these was for the Caerphilly seat in the Senedd (Welsh Parliament), which ended like this:

🚨 NEW | Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 47% (+19)
➡️ REF – 36% (+34)
🔴 LAB – 11% (-35)
🔵 CON – 2% (-15)
🟢 GRN – 2% (+2)
🟠 LD – 2% (-1)

+/- vs 2021 Senedd election pic.twitter.com/r1eCcFf4kA

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) October 24, 2025

The second was Gorton & Denton, which ended like this:

‼️ Gorton and Denton by-election result:

🟢 Grn: 40.7% (+27.5)
➡️ Ref: 28.7% (+14.6)
🔴 Lab: 25.4% (-25.4)
🔵 Con: 1.9% (-6.0)
🟠 Lib: 1.8% (-2.0)

Green GAIN from Labour (26.5% swing) pic.twitter.com/s49MGW8Uom

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) February 27, 2026

And now we have Makerfield.

In all three, centre-to-left voters showed a willingness to unite behind one party. We saw this least in Gorton & Denton, but even then the Greens secured over 40%.

As Luke Tryl of More in Common noted, you can see this tactical voting in action:

Striking here there has been barely any shift between the left and right blocs in Makerfield since 2024. pic.twitter.com/1nTJKuRJNR

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2026

Citizens were highly motivated to get out and vote in Makerfield, and the motivation for many was seemingly to keep Reform out:

Makerfield is the second highest turnout in a by election since 2000, and first time there’s been an increase in turnout from a general election in a by election since 1987. pic.twitter.com/8scmHJgDv9

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2026

As Tryl also noted, Reform actually knocked it out of the park in the recent local elections:

Worth remembering as much as people might say a Burnham victory was a given, this was the result in Makerfield in the local elections barely more than a month ago. Even running it close would have been defying electoral gravity, if it’s a clear Burnham victory that’s something… pic.twitter.com/uT5ymqWYox

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2026

Here’s how much it’s swung since then:

Here’s the swing between the Makerfield locals in May and the by election today. A 23 point swing from Reform to Labour in just 6 weeks. https://t.co/f01mzoGHRZ pic.twitter.com/COFVWspEym

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2026

So, what’s accounting for this?

Specifically, there’s one thing that the three by-elections have in common besides the public turning on Reform, and it’s the public turning on Keir Rodney Starmer. In all three by-elections, the public voted for candidates which opposed Starmer’s record in office. And now, one of them looks set to kick him out of office.

Reform VS Restore

There’s another factor in Reform’s downfall, and it’s the rise of Restore Britain. As Aaron Bastani of Novara noted:

Keeping their deposit is a good result for Restore.

It’s a huge problem for Reform though. Not because Restore’s % was the difference – it wasn’t – but because Reform had to fight a campaign for 10% of the electorate rather than look out to the other 90%.

So while centre-to-left voters are moving tactically, the far-right supporters are doing the opposite. And in the process, these parties are becoming ever more extreme – all to quiet the chattering of the online rabble rousers who demand the most hard right solution to every problem.

In other words – despite its poll lead – things are not looking good for Reform. Unless Burnham f*cks it all up, obviously, and let’s face it – he is a Labour politician. and that’s what they do.

Featured image via the Canary