Green Party plus Faiza Shaheen might be about to bring a shock to the Tories and Labour

The Green Party was jubilant on Friday 21 June, as new polling it conducted shows it is leading in two seats – on top of the two it is on course to potentially win, anyway. Meanwhile, independent candidate Faiza Shaheen may also be about to deliver a shock. The news will bring a further headache for embattled little Rishi Sunak – and also put the cat among the pigeons in the Labour Party, ahead of the general election.

Green Party surges ahead

As the Guardian reported, the Green Party got WeThink to conduct polling in some of its target seats on 17 June. It found that in two – Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire – the Greens are currently in the lead against the Tories.

The Guardian noted that:

While there are some caveats – the sample sizes are relatively small, at 500 and 501 people respectively, and more than a third of voters in each seat are still undecided – the polling appears to be a significant vindication of Ramsay and Denyer’s decision to run a highly focused campaign, with almost all resources devoted to the target seats.

In Waveney Valley, a new seat made up of parts of strongly Tory former constituencies, if people unlikely to vote and don’t knows are excluded, Ramsay is on 37% support with the Tory candidate, Richard Rout, the deputy leader of Suffolk county council, on 24%.

In North Herefordshire, the Green former MEP Ellie Chowns, who is now a Herefordshire council councillor, has 39% support, against 28% for the long-term Tory incumbent, Bill Wiggin.

On X, the Green Party was ecstatic:

New polling suggests we could take two rural seats from Tories. Exciting news for Waveney Valley & North Herefordshire where our fab ⁦@TheGreenParty⁩ candidates ⁦@AdrianRamsay⁩ & ⁦@EllieChowns⁩ are offering real hope & real change👇
https://t.co/q0qro1EEko

— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) June 21, 2024

BREAKING: Green Party on track to gain both its rural target seats off the Conservatives, according to a proper constituency-specific poll undertaken by independent market research and polling firm Omnisis:
Huge news!https://t.co/lJ8A7lXKBB#VoteGreen#VoteGreen24…

— Rupert Read 🌍 🔥 (@GreenRupertRead) June 21, 2024

I think I'll have to keep tweeting this exciting news. I was with @AdrianRamsay y'day and today
I'm off to help @EllieChowns win in #NHerefordshire. The Guardian says they can both win their seats. What a wonderful outcome. Two superb hardworking Greens. https://t.co/yNTn6LTHOv

— Jenny Jones (@GreenJennyJones) June 21, 2024

This constituency-level polling is likely to be more accurate than the nation projection polling that is usually done. Moreover, in both areas the Green Party already has strong local political representation in the form of councillors. So, it is likely that voters may well deliver them two victories – knocking the Tories further down.

All this is on top of the other two seats the Green Party may well win: Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central. The latter will be especially delicious for the Greens, as the party could unseat Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire.

When are we getting PR, then?

Then, former Labour candidate Shaheen – now independent due to the institutionally racist party dumping her – is surging ahead in Chingford and Wood Green at the general election:

*If you want to get rid of the Iain Duncan Smith vote Faiza Shaheen.*

Just over two weeks ago we launched our campaign to elect an independent MP for Chingford & Woodford Green.

Since then our people-powered campaign has reached all parts of the constituency, with hundreds of… pic.twitter.com/X2YSGhj8pS

— Faiza Shaheen (@faizashaheen) June 21, 2024

Admittedly, this polling was based on conversations with voters Shaheen’s team had. However, as she noted on X:

These are *real* conversations on the doorstep with 4,089 voters in Chingford and Woodford Green. Not numbers extrapolated from a national poll or old data before the independent campaign begun.

Any extra wins for the Green Party, independents like Shaheen, and by that same token George Galloway’s Workers Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform, would also have broader implications on national politics. It would further amplify the calls for the UK to implement proportional representation in future elections, challenging the current first-past-the-post system which marginalises smaller parties.

This might lead to a more diverse and representative political landscape, where a wider range of voices and perspectives can contribute to national discourse. Of course, that may not suit Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, on course for perhaps the biggest majority in decades.

However, what the Green Party and Shaheen’s polling shows is voters have had enough of the duopoly of UK politics. While Labour may win by a landslide on 4 July – it will be accompanied by either a surge in votes for smaller parties or voters not turning out at all – or, of course, both.

Featured image via the Canary