Greens make credible claim only they can stop Reform

According to doorstep polling from the Green Party, Reform are currently in the lead in Gorton & Denton. While this obviously wouldn’t be the desirable outcome, they’re also saying Labour are a distant third. And this could mean the Greens will benefit from any tactical voting which takes place:

The Green Party have shared doorstep data with me from across Gorton and Denton.

They say it shows:

Reform – 39%

Greens – 34%

Labour – 21%

Their data shows Reform 5 points ahead and Labour in a poor third place.

— Owen Jones (@owenjonesjourno) February 2, 2026

Polling

As Owen Jones highlighted, Reform also have Labour in third place:

The Reform Party’s own data has the Greens in second place right now:https://t.co/A2Jqo9jSC3

— Owen Jones (@owenjonesjourno) February 2, 2026

It’s important to remember these things can shift massively in response to a good campaign, with the key example being the 2017 election (the biggest vote share swing in Labour’s history).

While the polling we have currently suggests Reform will win, the bookies think the Greens have it:

The bookies currently have the Greens as the strong favourite to win the by-election.

But that’ll only pan out if the Greens can convince voters that it’s voting Labour which risks a Reform victory. pic.twitter.com/44R7uWR45x

— Owen Jones (@owenjonesjourno) February 2, 2026

Polling is a snapshot of the moment; bookies have to to predict the future lest they lose money (not that they always get it right).

Given the polling, the Greens are saying they’re the only realistic option for people who want to keep Reform out:

It’s all to play for but it’s clear Labour have blown it.

Only the Greens can stop Reform. https://t.co/IZ2E8zIqnM

— Zack Polanski (@ZackPolanski) February 2, 2026

This is especially true as both Your Party and the Workers Party have pulled out of the race:

📢 Statement on the Gorton & Denton By-Election

After consultation with local Your Party activists, we will not stand a candidate in this by-election. Instead, we will unite to defeat the far-right ✊ pic.twitter.com/UvrPe7CcmS

— Your Party (@thisisyourparty) February 2, 2026

Vote locally, think tactically

Tactical voting can work, and it can especially work against Reform. We saw this in October last year when voters abandoned Labour for Plaid Cymru in order to keep Reform out:

Caerphilly by-election broke several records:

🔴 First time Labour has lost in 115 years
🔴 Worst-ever Labour result
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Best-ever Plaid Cymru result
🔵 Worst-ever Tory result
➡️ Highest Reform % in a Welsh FPTP seat https://t.co/7ySKTr2jBv pic.twitter.com/sDKXaOzWsP

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) October 24, 2025

Let’s hope we see a similar swing away from Labour in this election. Especially as all the party seems to be offering is more of the same (i.e. endless failed privatisation):

Labour’s candidate in the Gorton & Denton by-election heads “Stakeholder Engagement” at Arup Group

Arup specialises in helping states privatise public utilities, including railways and water

Labour is stuffed full of people like this. It is the enemy of working people pic.twitter.com/A5Trmvi6pe

— Matt Kennard (@kennardmatt) February 1, 2026

Featured image via Bristol Green Party / Chris McAndrew / Laurie Noble