Trump must choose: Israel or oil?

Trump’s illegal and unprovoked attack on Iran is having a massive impact on oil and gas prices.

On 9 March, US president Donald Trump tried convincing the markets that his ‘Israel first’ war was “very complete” and would end “very soon”. The problem, which he does not see, is that you can’t please Israel AND the markets at the same time.

Iran, meanwhile, is intent on placing full blame for the price rises on the US and Israel, and pushing them to the point where they seriously regret waging this war of choice.

There’s no easy way out

Since 28 February, US-Israeli attacks have killed 1,255 people in Iran and injured 12,000. This includes an attack on a school which killed 165 schoolgirls that media investigations say the US was likely responsible for.

The offensive has set in motion a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon, killing around 400 people, including dozens of children.

As one might expect from a country committing genocide since 2023, human rights groups have documented Israel’s use of white phosphorus munitions against residential areas in southern Lebanon this past week.

Trump, meanwhile, has been laughing about unnecessarily attacking an Iranian ship that wasn’t posing a threat.

Hundreds of men murdered on an unarmed ship thousands of miles from
Iran.

Trump: "I said, 'Why don't we just capture the ship? He said, 'It's more fun to sink them."

These are war crimes and they laugh like it's a computer game.
pic.twitter.com/K2jzDf1kEX

— Daniel Lambert (@dlLambo) March 10, 2026

The attacks and attitudes of the US and Israel haven’t just upended the rules of war. Any effort to resume negotiations would be meaningless, as Iran’s foreign minister has said:

The U.S. committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island. Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.

Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 7, 2026

This suggests that Iran wants to ensure an eventual ceasefire doesn’t simply provide more time for the US and Israel to prepare for another attack. As author Trita Parsi has insisted, Iran will:

likely demand some significant steps in order to accept a ceasefire… [and] likely require sanctions relief and release of its frozen funds abroad

Trump’s “all over the place” presser appears to have had two key objectives: A) Calm the markets by signalling the conflict may soon be over because it has been so "successful,” and B) Prepare the ground for Trump ending the war through a unilateral declaration of victory.…

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 9, 2026

Iran has made its position clear – it won’t take instructions or bow to the demands of these aggressors.

🚨 Speaker of Iran’s Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf:

“We are absolutely not seeking a ceasefire. We believe the aggressor must be struck in the mouth so it learns a lesson and never again thinks of attacking our beloved Iran.

The Zionist regime sees its disgraceful… https://t.co/MMf1Us5u0b

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 10, 2026

As foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has asserted, there will be a “quagmire” unless there are significant concessions from the US and Israel.

Long prepared for this war, Iran's Powerful Armed Forces are ensuring that it becomes a quagmire for whomever chooses to pursue it.

We negotiated twice with this U.S. Administration. Both times, we were attacked in the middle of talks. It bears full responsibility for bloodshed. pic.twitter.com/wT1MmOfbUJ

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 5, 2026

Catastrophe brews

Araghchi has clarified that Iran is “not preventing” oil tankers from navigating the important Strait of Hormuz, whose traffic the US-Israeli assault has impacted significantly. Iran’s government has just called for waters and territories surrounding the country not to participate in US-Israeli attacks.

Iran also wants diplomatic consequences for the US and Israel in exchange for full movement in the strait:

🚨 BREAKING:
Iran’s IRGC says any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and U.S. ambassadors from will be granted full freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow, according to Iranian state media. https://t.co/2gAKdS4fQ8

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 10, 2026

As Trita Parsi suggested, Trump is clearly feeling the heat and trying to calm markets and prepare a path to retreat that doesn’t make him look a total failure. He knows how unpopular his war of choice is, gaining support only from far-right warhawks (including Israeli war criminals).

In the US, only 29% of people support the illegal war. US allies in Gulf dictatorships, meanwhile, are very annoyed because Iran has responded by attacking US assets in their countries. And in the UK, the right-wing Labour government may be dancing to Trump’s tune, but 59% of people oppose his war and 67% are anti-Trump.

Even German chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has supported the US-Israeli war, has said:

there is apparently no common plan for how this war can be brought to a swift and convincing end.

Trump’s strategy isn’t working, and won’t

Trump is clearly a mess. He’s desperate to end the calamitous war of choice as soon as possible – particularly because of the oil chaos. But he also hates losing. So he has been doubling down on his undiplomatic tough talk, which is unlikely to spark any good will in Iran. The US, he insisted, will hit Iran “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if it:

does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz

He added that the US would:

make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them

Considering that the US and Israel are nuclear powers and Iran isn’t, any threat like the above is serious. But further mass destruction in Iran would only spark much greater resistance to Trump’s regime back home.

The more Trump delays in ending the war, meanwhile, the greater the cost will be to the US. And Iran is in no mood to keep costs down or make it easy for him. So he needs to make a decision. What’s more important to him: bringing oil prices down, or serving Israel’s genocidal warmongers? Because he can’t have both.

Featured image via the Canary