Labour facing electoral wipeout in the Welsh Senedd

Polling suggests that Labour are facing a wipeout in the upcoming local elections. As these elections will also see votes in the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, this could see the party of government reduced to a movement which doesn’t exist outside England:

Labour is projected to collapse to just 15% of seats in the Senedd, after hovering around 50% since it was formed.

Plaid Cymru is to achieve its best result ever of 37 seats (39%)

Greens and Reform are to enter the Senedd for the first time, on 4 (4%) and 29 (30%) respectively. pic.twitter.com/asVJwkLuep

— cez (@cezthesocialist) April 16, 2026

Labour collapse

Pollsters have been predicting that the party faces oblivion in the Senedd (Welsh parliament) for a while:

‼️Senedd poll | Plaid lead by 3pts

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 30% (+1)
➡️ Ref: 27% (=)
🔴 Lab: 17% (-3)
🟢 Grn: 11% (+4)
🔵 Con: 9% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 6% (+1)

— Seats —
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 36
➡️ Ref: 33
🔴 Lab: 15
🟢 Grn: 6
🔵 Con: 4
🟠 Lib: 2

Poll: @BeaufortLtd, 2-22 Mar (+/- vs 8 Feb) pic.twitter.com/rpFcgNTw6i

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) April 1, 2026

‼️Senedd poll | Plaid Cymru lead by 6pts

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 33% (-4)
➡️ Ref: 27% (+4)
🔴 Lab: 13% (+3)
🟢 Grn: 12% (-1)
🔵 Con: 7% (-3)
🟠 Lib: 5% (=)

— Seats —
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 41
➡️ Ref: 33
🔴 Lab: 11
🟢 Grn: 9
🔵 Con: 1
🟠 Lib: 1

Poll: @YouGov, 9-18 Mar (+/- vs 12 Jan) pic.twitter.com/OYI93UgBsr

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) March 24, 2026

The leading party is Plaid Cymru, which is a nationalist party that wants to achieve Welsh independence. The fact that Plaid are doing well shows many Welsh voters are coming around to the party’s way of thinking.

Instead of offering a positive alternative, Starmer’s party are putting out materials like the following:

Labour has literally governed with Plaid. Meanwhile Reform are Nazis, apparently. Stop them!

But you governed with a party which you’re claiming is…the same? 🤪

— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) April 15, 2026

We saw an example of Labour’s fading Welsh fortunes in the Caerphilly by-election of October 2025:

Composition of the Senedd after by-election:

🔴 LAB – 29 (-1)
🔵 CON – 14 (-)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 PLAID – 13 (+1)
⚪️ IND – 2 (-)
🟠 LD – 1 (-)
➡️ REF – 1 (-)

Labour no longer has a working majority. pic.twitter.com/bJPrQ2V1dc

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) October 24, 2025

This is what ex-Labour mayor Jamie Driscoll wrote for the Canary following Labour’s defeat:

Caerphilly is a constituency of South Wales Valleys. The spiritual home of the Labour movement. Labour’s superficially impressive haul of 411 Westminster MPs in July 2024 was an anti-Tory vote. They’ve squandered their opportunity.

Labour have been insincere, insidious, and incompetent. Having won the leadership by lying to Labour members (remember his Ten Pledges?), team Starmer doubled down and told different lies to different sections of the electorate. It’s not just that they are floundering in the polls. The party is structurally ashamed of itself. This time last year my social media feeds still had a handful of tribal Labour loyalists saying “give them time”.

No more.

Disasterclass

Keir Starmer looks set to go down in history as the politician who ended Labour’s viability in Wales. The question is whether his next record will be ending the party’s viability everywhere else.

Featured image via Getty