The one graph that should shame the Tories – and Boris Johnson – at the general election

Boris Johnson’s flagship policy when he was Conservative Party prime minister has failed, according to new analysis. Everyone outside of London and the South East should know about it before the general election.

Levelling Up: a failure by the Conservatives

There are very few signs of Levelling Up, with disparities in living standards and productivity between various English regions and UK devolved nations remaining unchanged or widening since the last general election, according to the latest analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ahead of this general election.

The Levelling Up process – as set out in the 2022 White Paper after it was Boris Johnson’s brainchild – had the important ambition to narrow the economic and social gap between the regions of the United Kingdom by 2030.

However, NIESR research shows that the gap in living standards between the London and the South East and the North East has grown, and productivity differences between London and the South East and the West Midlands have also increased.

The combination of insufficient central government resources and the slow disbursement of relatively small pots of money has meant that progress on the 12 main Levelling Up missions has been feeble.

NIESR projections of living standards and productivity suggest that unless some fundamental change occurs, there will be no significant progress by 2030.

To change the course of action and start reducing regional inequalities, NIESR recommends the next government to:

• Substantially increase the level of public investment to at least 4-5 per cent of GDP per year.
• Speed up the disbursement of Levelling Up funds according to clear economic and social criteria.
• Reform the operation of government, with better cross-government coordination and greater decentralisation of both decision-making powers and resources in policy areas such as skills, transport, infrastructure and housing.

Everyone should know this before the general election

Professor Adrian Pabst, deputy director for public policy at NIESR, said:

Levelling Up is the right idea but it has been a policy failure.

Notwithstanding the various shocks like Covid-19 and the spike in inflation, Levelling Up has not happened because of a lack of resources and the slow disbursement of small pots of money. If the next government wants to reduce regional inequalities, it will need to combine political leadership with a credible programme of public investment of 4-5 per cent of GDP per year, which can unlock greater business investment.

Bringing about sustained regional regeneration is a generational task, and we require a commitment that is at scale.

The graph that says it all is below – showing the London and the South East have been the only big winners since the Tories brought in Levelling Up:

Featured image via Number 10 – Flickr