Labour has obliterated Reform’s poll lead

Now that Keir Starmer has gone, the much anticipated ‘Burnham Bounce’ seems to have materialised. If Andy Burnham can keep this momentum going for Labour, it will be bad news for Reform UK and the Green Party.

🗳️ BREAKING | Labour surge to poll LEAD (!)

🔴 Lab: 28% ( +4 )
➡️ Ref: 24% ( -2 )
🔵 Con: 22% ( – )
🟠 Lib: 12% ( +1 )
🟢 Grn: 8% ( -3 )

{ Seats }
🔴 Lab: 246
🔵 Con: 128
➡️ Ref: 115
🟠 Lib: 72
🟡 Nat: 59
🟢 Grn: 8

Poll: More in Common, 24-27 Jul (+/- vs 22 Jul) pic.twitter.com/AkKoPyIlQf

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) July 27, 2026

Labour turns a corner

The above poll is from More in Common. For reference, this was where their polling had Labour in May — just weeks after Starmer’s government suffered the disastrous local elections:

Reform UK extend their lead to 10 points in this week’s voting intention, as Labour drop back 3 points.

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-3)
🌳 CON 19% (+1)
🌍 GREEN 13% (+3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
❓OTH 3% (nc)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2111 | Fieldwork 22-25/5 | Changes w/ 18/5 pic.twitter.com/58WJP5JrAV

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) May 27, 2026

Speaking of the local elections, this was how things went for Labour:

🚨BREAKING: Final Local Election Results 2026

Seats / councils

➡️ RFM: 1453 (+1451) / 14 (+14)
🔴 LAB: 1068 (-1496) / 28 (-38)
🟠 LDM: 844 (+155) / 15 (+1)
🔵 CON: 801 (-563) / 9 (-6)
🟢 GRN: 587 (+441) / 5 (+5)
⚪️ OTH: 245 (+43) / 1 (+1)
⚪️ RES: 36 (-31)

64 NOC councils (+23)

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 9, 2026

And this was how things went for Labour earlier in the year in the Gorton & Denton by-election:

🚨 BREAKING: The Green Party has won the Gorton and Denton by-election from Labour

🟢 GRN: 14,980 (+10,170)
➡️ REF: 10,578 (+5,436)
🔴 LAB: 9,364 (-9,191)
🔵 CON: 706 (-2,182)
🔶 LD: 653 (-746)

Changes w/ 2024

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) February 27, 2026

Clearly, things were not going well for Labour under Starmer. The question was whether the party’s fortunes would improve under another leader.

While we still have doubts about the long-term viability of the Burnham project, it’s obvious he’s doing enough to win back voters right now. He’s also doing it at a time when Reform UK and Nigel Farage are facing multiple ongoing scandals, including:

Our problems with Reform go well beyond the financial issues too. This is a far-right party that has normalised anti-migrant hatred among a significant portion of the electorate. Reform proved so successful on this front that Starmer’s Home Office began copying Farage’s homework, with Burnham continuing that trend.

Burnham’s problems go deeper than this too, as we’ve reported:

It also seems clear that the moderate tinkering Burnham is proposing won’t notably change people’s lives. This will ultimately be a problem because people’s quality of life has dropped significantly over the past few years, and unless that reverses, people will continue to rebel against the government of the day.

Contrary to all this, Burnham could potentially find a project that wins enough support to secure another election. The much-needed National Care Service he’s currently hinting at could be such a project. It could also be another of his many U-turns.

2029

The More in Common poll isn’t the only one showing a Burnham Bounce (or a Reform recession). Check out this from YouGov:

🗳️ NEW | Labour / Reform tied

🔴 Lab: 22% ( +1 )
➡️ Ref: 22% ( -1 )
🔵 Con: 21% ( +1 )
🟢 Grn: 13% ( – )
🟠 Lib: 11% ( -3 )

{ Seats }
🔴 Lab: 162
🔵 Con: 158
➡️ Ref: 142
🟠 Lib: 71
🟡 Nat: 59
🟢 Grn: 24

Poll: YouGov, 26-27 July (+/- vs 23 July) pic.twitter.com/w4Vqri3dKO

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) July 27, 2026

For reference, this was where YouGov had the parties after the local elections:

🗳️POLL | Reform surges to 11pt lead

➡️ Ref: 28% (+3)
🔵 Con: 17% (-)
🟢 Grn: 16% (+1)
🔴 Lab: 16% (-2)
🟠 Lib: 13% (-1)

{ Seats }
➡️ Ref: 333
🟠 Lib: 85
🟢 Grn: 73
🔵 Con: 53
🟡 SNP: 46
🔴 Lab: 20
🟩 Plaid: 11

Poll: @YouGov, 10-11 May (+/- vs 5 May) pic.twitter.com/dUXtyp1md8

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 12, 2026

You can’t read too much into any given poll and pollsters can’t predict the future. What they can do, however, is demonstrate the shifting fortunes of the political parties. And clearly, in this moment, people are drifting away from Reform and the Greens and over to Labour.

We’ve got doubts about Burnham’s ability to maintain this, but if he can pull off the National Care Service, he could certainly last far longer than his predecessor.

Featured image via the Canary