Craps is a game that is based on probabilities, much like any game of chance. It’s a game that involves using two six-sided dice and trying to throw a certain outcome, with the likelihood of the desired result often being against the odds.
To win the game, there are a variety of different bets that can be played. The most common is the ‘Pass Line’ bet, which requires individuals to try and roll either a ‘7’ or an ‘11’ when they throw the two dice down the table. Others may look at the ‘Don’t Pass Line’ bet, as this requires three different numbers to be rolled: ‘2’, ‘3’, or ‘12’.
As a result, the probabilities of the outcomes need to be considered when placing a bet. Players who understand the maths behind this can make more informed decisions about the bets that they make, thus helping them to enjoy a more positive craps gameplay experience.
Craps and the game’s probabilities
With the usage of two six-sided dice, we know that there can be any of 36 possible outcomes rolled. However, the rules of the game dictate that, depending on the type of bet that is played, only a few of the combinations that can be rolled are winners.
As mentioned, the ‘Pass Line’ bet is the most common to be placed, and this is the one that most players will often look to play. Remember, a winning outcome can only be achieved when a ‘7’ or an ‘11’ is rolled on the come-out. When looking at the possible combinations available across the two dice, the value of ‘7’ is the one that has the highest probability of occurring. This works out at 16.67% of any throw that is made, as there are various ways in which this can be achieved.
In terms of scoring an ‘11’, this is much harder to achieve, as there is only one combination that can make this happen (a ‘6’ and a ‘5’).
If you decide to play craps at a live casino, you might notice that there are some other values that appear frequently when rolling the dice. Numbers ‘6’ and ‘8’ are among the most common, due to the number of combinations that can be used to create each of their values. The probability of these outcomes happening have been determined to be 13.89%, thus smaller than the ‘7’, but still very frequent.
At the other end of the scale, a ‘2’ and ‘12’ are going to be the numbers with the lowest probabilities of being achieved. They can only happen once – like the ‘11’ – meaning they have a probability of just 2.78% of appearing.
What does the probability of Pass Line Bets and Don’t Pass Line Bets look like?
Once you understand how the maths can have an impact on what outcomes the dice can reveal when thrown, it can provide you with an informed situation about the common types of bets that can be placed.
As mentioned, the Pass Line Bet is the most common wager that is chosen, and this is because it is the bet that has the greater probability of being more successful than it’s opposite.
A Pass Line Bet has a probability of being successful in 251 of the 495 combinations that are available. In contrast, the Don’t Pass Line Bet has 244 of 495 combinations that can be successful. In terms of percentages, this accounts to 50.7% and 49.3%, respectively.
Is Craps worth playing based on the probabilities?
With those odds, is craps actually worth playing? It would seem that there is a greater chance of losing more often than not, although that’s not uncommon across the gambling industry. In fact, what makes craps an appealing game is that there isn’t a house edge, with the house taking a small percentage from the wagers that are successful.
What is known is the information behind the different types of bets that can be made, meaning players can make informed decisions about what they should do and what could be expected. It can help them to devise certain strategies that may help to increase and enhance their chances of winning when at the table, while it can also give them the knowledge of when it is best to simply walk away and stop rolling the dice.
