Poll puts Burnham streets ahead of any leadership challenger, quandary for Greens
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has confirmed he intends to stand in the Makerfield by-election. The by-election has been triggered by disgraced ‘Labour Together’ right-winger Josh Simons’s decision to step down — specifically to let Burnham stand. If he wins, he will be eligible to stand for election as Labour party leader – and therefore as prime minister. Remarkably, it seems Labour’s hard-right party machine isn’t going to block him as it did, disastrously for Labour, in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
While it would doubtless help expose the bankruptcy of Starmerism and bring Starmer down, this also creates a quandary for the Greens and other parties.
Burnham is far from ideal. He showed cowardice on Labour’s plans, under Ed Miliband, to intensify the Tories’ attacks on benefit claimants. The decision guaranteed Jeremy Corbyn would win the 2015 leadership election. He voted for Tony Blair’s illegal Iraq war, has supported Israel and pushed NHS privatisation along. His record was summarised by Your Party MP Zarah Sultana:
The Greens agree. But while Burnham is no ‘radical alternative’, he is night and day against any rival in the leadership contest. If nothing else, he actually has a personality. And it seems Labour members agree. A poll of members by Survation found that Burnham is a country mile ahead of any potential candidate even remotely in the frame to stand against him if he wins the by-election.
Burnham vs Starmer
In fact, while awful incumbent Keir Starmer would either beat or only lose narrowly to other rivals, Burnham would crush him:
Head-to-head for Labour leader among members:
Burnham 61 – Starmer 28
Miliband 46 – Starmer 39
Rayner 45 – Starmer 41
Starmer 45 – Cooper 31
Starmer 51 – Powell 27
Starmer 53 – Streeting 23Via: Survation / LabourList poll of Labour members.
Fieldwork: 13-14 May, N=1124. pic.twitter.com/cpdVCqrpB1— PollCheck (@poll_checker) May 14, 2026
But the ‘if’ of the by-election is a big one. Simons’s vote share in Makerfield in 2024 was only around a thousand votes ahead of the combined Tory-Reform vote. With Labour’s popularity in the sewers after two years of Starmer government, it’s not certain — maybe not even likely — that Burnham will win it for Labour.
This is even more so given that Reform is likely to throw everything at the seat. Especially because its management — if it has any political nous at all — will want to make sure Labour can only be led by Starmer or someone every bit as drab and dire in the period up to the next general election. The Tories, too, might well make a pact with Reform for the same reason to avoid splitting the racist vote.
This poses a quandary for the Greens, particularly, and other parties. The Greens might decline to stand in the by-election in the hope that a Burnham-led Labour does less to usher in Farage’s fascists. Standing and preventing a Burnham win would be presented as the Greens giving Farage and co a helping hand.
But so might not standing. The Greens’ narrative, after Gorton, is justifiably that they and not Labour are the UK’s hope of beating the fascists. Standing down would disrupt that message. It would also help Labour get the boost of a new leader who is not obviously aligned with, and far more personable than, the current regime and raise the prospects of a divided anti-fascist vote in 2029 (or earlier).
And the waters of that choice are muddied even further by how Burnham has been able — apparently — to put himself up for Makerfield. Hard-right, pro-Israel antisemitism smearer Simons’s resignation may have opened the door for Burnham, but there is not a snowflake in hell’s chance that the deal doesn’t come with huge strings attached. Not so much strings, but miles of bunting festooned with Israel flags. If Burnham has made a ‘deal with the devil’ to get his shot, and honours it, that’s a disaster with huge consequences for freedom and human rights in the UK, Palestine and a lot of other places.
Featured image via the Canary
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And Bunham’s Big Boast On The Buses ain’t all its cracked up to be.
Though making some improvements on fares and upping bus user numbers ‘Public Control’ actually means we pick the public’s brains to plan better services but private bus companies still run the buses and scoop up the profits on the back of our efforts!
Real socialists would have publicly owned buses by local councils, would give bus workers & communities a say in the running of these via Bus Users Councils and would have Free Transport on the Buses for All which aids the environment + less cars means less C02 emissions, safer & quieter roads, fresher air, less stress on bus drivers, and would save car owners hundreds in petrol costs if they used the free buses + it is more efficient without 10/15 minutes being added on journeys with people faffing with cards etc.
Only the Left like Your Party has true vision on public transport unlike lightweight Burnham.
I wasn’t aware that YP was even vaguely Left, in reality a vanity party for JC.
Yawn!
As a key player in Labour Together, Simons is highly unlikely to be acting in the interestests of Andy Burnham. Much more likely is a Labour Together stich up to get Burnham to stand in a constituency that they think he is unlikely to win, and thereby keep the Labour Together operation in power without overtly refusing to let Andy stand. I don’t doubt that a deal has been made with Simons and that a peerage or other cushie government job will be on it’s way, but I think it will come through Labour Together channels.
Gill’s theory here that Josh Simons has routed Andy Burnham to a seat which he thinks Reform are likely to win may be true
He may indeed think that, but if he does then he is in the same boat as many many commentators about the recent local elections. The talk has been of “landslides,” the Lib Dems ending up with all 54 seats on Richmond council, or Reform winning all or virtually all the seats available in Wigan and Sunderland..
But none of these were true landslides. Just like the Labour electoral victory in the general election of 2024, these “landslides” are phony landslides. The vote share being achieved by winning parties of every stripe does not correspond to the seats they win. First Past The Post ensures that any party which gets its nose an inch or two in front, takes everything.
So Reform’s dramatic advance in the Wigan local elections is probably based on a vote share of around 30%, or maybe a little more. Under FPTP, that is what you get.
And that root share is quite likely to be basically the same as what they will get in the violation by election as the reform workshead everywhere is stuck at around that figure, which itself is in slow decline.
So my take is that Burnham is in a relatively straightforward seat to win provided he overcomes the potential reluctance of voters to quite obviously further a candidate’s personal political career, as they cast their vote.
Sorry typo
“workshead”. =. vote share
Come on skwawkbox you can do better than this! Talk about fiddling while the UK burns!
Why do you expect socialist politics from a website that runs advertorials promoting Dubai, cryptocurrencies and gambling?
Perhaps the Greens & Your Party should field candidates to stand for what they believe in and Your Party should enter the stage as their branches are due to be formed.
Did note the Greens in my city in a university area had a big win but when I saw their leaflets they were non political.
Perhaps people are fed up with Parliamentary games?
The Greens go with the colour of their wellies. Unusual that their success in Gorton was in an area that really needs some real greening policy; normally I would say they are for the suburbs where the Mummies can now drive their little mites 30 miles a day to a “good school” on the other side of the county in their Hybrid or electric car.
The problem I have with the greens is rather like the issue that Phil Ochs had with the Liberals, a little to the left on the latest high profile crypto-fascist corporatist invasion of human rights and the full proto-fascist right when the Oiks might impact their comfortable lives. I hope I am wrong; but the originators of the Green Movement in Germany were far from socialist in their origin; infact their were some decidely odd closet jack booted types lurking around as I recall.
What do we want? social housing, when do we want it? now! where do we want it? on the other side of the town, please!
Our hope is that we can get those that don’t vote because politics stopped speaking for them to vote because we need to start speaking for all. Reclaim democracy from the middle class voters or Blair’s Sierra-man or now Hybrid Harry to get a voice for can’t get a bus becuase the service has been cancelled Bert, bertha or both.
Burnham will have to condemn LFI and Israel if he wants anyone on the left to vote for him as Labour are now thought of as the genocide party. He lost credibility years ago.