Green victory a possibility in Gorton and Denton after Labour’s Burnham bungling

Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) has banned Andy Burnham from attempting to become the Labour candidate for the late February Gorton and Denton by-election in Manchester. But while that stops a potential Burnham leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, it may bring about a Green victory in the seat.

Predicted Green win

The Electoral Calculus has the Greens winning the seat with 24.6% of the vote, Labour in second on 23.9% and Reform in third on 21.2%:

Electoral Calculus has Greens gaining Gorton and Denton from Labour.

If this transpires to be the case, it will be the first and biggest by-election th Greens would win.

Earthquake incoming? 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZUEqvWm5j3

— Green Elects (@GrnElects) January 25, 2026

A poll from Find Out Now, meanwhile, found that Labour’s vote share in the constituency dropped from 49% to 24% now it doesn’t have Burnham as its candidate. As the Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, Burnham has brought about solid support.

The majority of the public disagrees with Starmer’s decision to block Burnham, intensifying his unpopularity. According to YouGov, 44% of respondents oppose the ban, while just 12% agree with the Labour leadership.

Labour MPs up in arms

Labour MPs are also against the decision. More than 50 of them have sent a letter to Starmer to voice their disagreement. Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell was particularly unforgiving. On social media, he said:

Message to Keir: Do not underestimate the depth of anger people will feel about this disgusting decision. If you think it strengthens you I tell you it will simply hasten your demise. You could have shown magnanimous leadership but instead it’s cowardice.

Again, Starmer’s move to dispose of anyone who isn’t a right-wing politician may well backfire. Former Kemptown MP Lloyd Russel-Moyle was blocked from standing in 2024 and he’s now joined the Greens. Starmer attempted to get rid of Zarah Sultana in 2023 and she’s now co-founded Your Party.

Instead of working with the left, Starmer has delivered U-turn after U-turn and turned banished MPs into an external electoral force. Perhaps McDonnell is right that the latest ban on Burnham will also go south.

Featured image via the Canary