Inside traders may have profited from Venezuela invasion

Recently, we reported on the rise of so-called ‘prediction markets’. While these sites claim they’re not gambling, they are for all intents and purposes gambling. The key difference is they allow people to gamble on real-life events rather than simply sports. This is why we’re now seeing dystopian occurrences like the following over Venezuela:

Some war related insider trading? A brand new account in polymarket, only invested in US going to war with Venezuela and Maduro out by January 31. Up 13k so far, was spending thousands on Maduro out at bargain prices as recently as 4 hours ago. Now it’s at .50. pic.twitter.com/GLnfvAfEZc

— tyson brody (@tysonbrody) January 3, 2026

Now that Maduro out is at .99 following the Trump announcement this account has in one week realized nearly $150k in profit and has hundreds of thousands more in unrealized profits pic.twitter.com/AFRq2y06wD

— tyson brody (@tysonbrody) January 3, 2026

Gamblification on Venezuela

The difference between prediction markets and gambling is that in the former, users are buying stocks in a question. The difference in value between the ‘yes’ traders and the ‘no’ traders determines the odds.

Given that people are gambling on real-life events, there’s obviously an opportunity for people with inside knowledge to game the system. If you were part of the Trump administration, for example, you could put your money on Venezuelan president Maduro being forced out, knowing that plans were afoot to abduct him. You could also be a close relative of Trump who happens to be a strategic advisor to Kalshi (one of the two main prediction markets):

Donald Trump Jr is a paid strategic advisor for Kalshi — where they are setting odds so people can bet on the decisions made by his father.

Just an all-time grift. https://t.co/X3r7SonDxZ pic.twitter.com/VcqBJsGIK2

— Melanie D'Arrigo (@DarrigoMelanie) December 22, 2025

Oh, and Trump Jr. is also an investor in the other prediction market, Polymarket:

Feels like a problem that the president's son is invested in Polymarket, a crypto betting site that lets people wager on election outcomes, via a VC firm that he joined after his father won.

It's not like Trump has a history of trying to manipulate election results or anything. pic.twitter.com/SKLeWoWF6g

— Emma Vigeland (@EmmaVigeland) September 4, 2025

Regarding ‘insider trading’, people have highlighted that it’s actually encouraged to an extent:

A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026

Kalshi’s founders have spoken about inside traders being an advantage because it means the predictions end up being more accurate, as Coffeezilla covered in the following video:

Trade wars

Prediction markets recently became more well known because of the following:

The co-founder of Kalshi says: " The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion." pic.twitter.com/M1gf0leJFV

— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) December 3, 2025

It attracted so much attention because it perfectly encapsulates what we all know to be true; that no matter what goes wrong in the world, the rich always profit, because the system is stacked in their favour.

Creating financial markets from division is the obvious end point to this sociopathic culture.

Featured image via Pexels