Scottish Reform nosedive following candidate chaos

As we’ve reported, Reform UK is having a nightmarish local election campaign. Now, these problems are starting to bear out in polling:

🗳️Reform UK supports plummets in Scotland following chaotic start to Holyrood campaign, @NorstatUKPolls finds.

Constituency:

🟡 SNP 34 (-1 vs Feb)
🔴 Lab 19 (+2)
➡️ Ref 15 (-4)
🔵 Con 11 (+1)
🟠 LibDem 10 (+2)
🟢 Green 8 (=)

— Dan Sanderson (@DSanderson_85) April 4, 2026

Anti-campaigning

Diving deeper into the polls, the Times’ Dan Sanderson noted:

Despite the SNP vote largely holding up, Reform’s loss of support is “bad news” for the nationalists, says Sir John Curtice.

His seat projections:

🟡 SNP 57 (-7 vs 2021)
🔴 Lab 20 (-2)
➡️ Ref 16 (+16)
🟢 Green 13 (+5)
🔵 Con 12 (-19)
🟠 LibDem 11 (+7)

Write up and analysis ⬇️

— Dan Sanderson (@DSanderson_85) April 4, 2026

As he further reported, Reform’s polling is at its lowest level in over a year. This is a bad situation for Reform considering they’re in the runup to elections. With five weeks left, too, things could still get worse.

Sanderson added:

Lord Offord of Garvel, anointed by Farage as Reform UK’s Scottish leader in January, has made a succession of gaffes and faced intense scrutiny for a racist and homophobic joke he told at a rugby club dinner in 2018. He has since apologised for the joke, saying he “accepts accountability”.

We reported on lord Offal of Garble in December 2025, noting it was Boris Johnson who made him a peer. In other words, he’s yet another one of the Tory rejects Reform has accepted in the past 12 months.

In a piece about Reform UK suspending Scottish candidates, Skwawkbox wrote the following for the Canary on 21 March:

Hilariously, Reform’s Scottish head Malcolm Offord just boasted to the BBC’s Radio Scotland about how much time the party had spent vetting candidates and claimed all they had found was instances of candidates saying “something fruity in the past”.

Reform have lost more Scottish candidates since then too:

5 candidates have quit, the Reform UK Scottish launch was a mess, Tory candidate saturation, the manifesto sums don’t add up, the homophobic joke, the recycled dodgy campaign poster…

Malcolm Offord is a failure.#OffordMustGo pic.twitter.com/YmVQpYj98T

— Reform Party UK Exposed 🇬🇧 (@reformexposed) April 3, 2026

Regarding Reform UK’s local election woes, we’ve additionally reported the following:

• Another Reform candidate has praised Enoch Powell.
• Reform welcomes ‘shoot the p*kis’ scandal ex-Tory.
• Day One Reform activist accuses party of ‘sewer’ politics in explosive resignation letter.
• Farage heckled at Reform’s Jimmy Saville-aping London launch.
• Video emerges of Reform’s ‘Nazi salute’ candidate drink driving.

Reform UK — Nationwide slide

Earlier today, we reported that the Greens had drawn level with Reform in one national poll. Since then, Stats for Lefties have shown that the Greens were actually slightly ahead:

‼️BREAKING | Greens surge into LEAD (1st!!)

🟢 Grn: 21.4% (+2.1)
➡️ Ref: 20.9% (-1.4)
🔵 Con: 20.5% (+0.2)
🔴 Lab: 17.0% (-0.4)
🟠 Lib: 9.2% (-1.9)

Poll: @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs 19-23 Feb) pic.twitter.com/oDVw4cDaFC

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) April 5, 2026

As Novara’s Aaron Bastani highlighted, this is historic:

The first time in British history that the Greens have topped a national poll for Westminster.

Despite whatever talking points you’ll hear in legacy media my sense is they are gently nibbling into people who were considering Reform.

With five weeks left until the local elections, the Greens look increasingly well positioned to upset Reform’s predicted upset:

‼️NEW | Projected seat change in local elections:

➡️ Ref +2,260
🟢 Grn +450
🟠 Lib +200
🔵 Con -1,010
🔴 Lab -1,900

(Source: Stephen Fisher / @ElectionsEtc) pic.twitter.com/pkPixJ3Ont

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) March 30, 2026

Featured image via Pixabay (via Canva)