Poll has Labour down ahead of crucial Burnham by-election

Labour’s Andy Burnham is hoping to return to parliament to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. Should he succeed, he will then become the British PM. The question is whether this will be enough to turn Labour’s fortunes around given that said fortunes are squarely in the toilet:

🗳️POLL | Reform lead by 6pts

➡️Ref: 25% (-)
🔵Con: 19% (-1)
🟢Grn: 18% (-2)
🔴Lab: 15% (-1)
🟠Lib: 13% (+2)

– Seats –
➡️Ref: 280
🟢Grn: 104
🔵Con: 97
🟠Lib: 80
🟡SNP: 46
🟩Plaid: 11
🔴Lab: 7

Poll: @FindoutnowUK, 13 May (+/- vs 6 May) pic.twitter.com/kHzxKcJoIu

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 18, 2026

Burnham wipeout

The above poll asked people how they’d vote if there was an election today. Of course, this means asking people how they’d vote with Keir Starmer as the Labour leader. As such, the poll may not tell us much about Burnham’s chances in the Makerfield by-election. It also might not tell us much about how popular Labour could prove with Burnham as leader.

While the above poll doesn’t tell us how Burnham might do in Makerfield, other polls give us an idea. Firstly, we have his popularity in comparison to other Labour figures:

‼️POLL | Net favourability of potential leaders:

🔴 Burnham +8
—
🔴 Streeting -18
🔴 Cooper -18
🔴 Miliband -26
🔴 Rayner -29
🔴 Starmer -38

Source: @Ipsos, 8-12 May pic.twitter.com/nV2aoZmqc0

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 14, 2026

Given this, we can assume voters will see Burnham more favourably than the current Labour Party. We can also predict some will vote Burnham purely to get rid of the hated Starmer.

There’s also Burnham’s popularity in the North West compared to rival parties (important, because Makerfield is in Greater Manchester):

‼️POLL | Net favourability in North West:

🔴 Burnham +26
—
🟠 Davey -9
🟢 Polanski -16
➡️ Farage -22
🔵 Badenoch -24
🔴 Starmer -42

Source: @Ipsos, March – May 2026 pic.twitter.com/Ytut5bnnsQ

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 15, 2026

Getting even more specific, there are polls on the Makerfield by-election itself:

🗳️NEW | Burnham narrowly leads in Makerfield

🔴 Lab: 45% (-)
➡️ Ref: 42% (+10)

Source: @Survation estimate, 15 May 2026
—
+/- vs 2024 general election pic.twitter.com/wwgueC9uDP

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 16, 2026

The question will be who can run the best campaign.

In a sense, Reform’s actions up until now work in Burnham’s favour. Farage & co have been shouting about how terrible Starmer is, and how we need to get him out. The only guaranteed path to that happening, though, is to get Burnham in.

Even if a person plans on voting Reform UK in the next election, you could possibly convince them to vote for the Manchester mayor now, if only to be rid of Starmer.

Make or breakerfield

Burnham is currently the mayor of Greater Manchester, where he enjoys tremendous popularity. Makerfield is within his mayoral constituency, which should put him in good stead. As Stats for Lefties highlighted, however, the Burnham bounce is less in Makerfield than in other areas:

Burnham does outperform Labour in elections, but in Wigan that "Burnham bonus" is not as large as you might think.

{ 2021 }
🔴Burnham: 70%
🔴Labour: 50%
Bonus: +20

{ 2024 }
🔴Burnham: 66%
🔴Labour: 52%
Bonus: +14

By comparison, across GM the Burnham bonus was +19.4 in 2024.

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) May 15, 2026

In other words, this isn’t going to be a cakewalk for Burnham. And nor should it be. As we’ve reported, Burnham has already said Labour shouldn’t pursue proportional representation in this parliament, and there’s reason to suspect he wouldn’t pursue full re-nationalisation. Reform won’t challenge him on any of this, obviously, but the Green Party will, and they’re right to do so.

Labour have proven to be a massive failure under Keir Starmer. If Burnham wants voters to believe things will be different under him, he needs to do more than just show up.

Featured image via Getty Images (WPA Pool)