New Gorton and Denton by-election poll has the Greens in first place

New polling in the Gorton and Denton constituency for the incoming by-election has the Greens three points ahead of Reform. The Zack Polanski-led party is on 20%. Meanwhile, Labour trails on 15%.

Green win would be historic

The constituency battle marks a further move away from the two party system. As has already happened in countries like France, the traditional two parties are becoming sidelined by up and coming outfits.

But supporters of the Greens shouldn’t be complacent. The Greens are only three points ahead of Reform and the majority – 27% – do not know which way they will vote, according to the polling by Omnisis. The final week of campaigning will be particularly crucial for the outcome.

Doorstep data, which is less comprehensive than a weighted poll, also paints a different picture. Reform are ahead with 35.7% and the Greens a very close second on 35.5%. Labour is on just 22.5%.

Combine this with analysis from the Electoral Calculus and internal polling showing it’s very close between Reform and the Greens, this election is certainly a battle where voting Labour is a gift to Reform. It can only split the anti-Reform vote.

The Zack Polanski impact

The Greens have surged to unprecedented heights with the leadership of Zack Polanski. Membership of the party has more than tripled to 195,000. Recently, Polanski outlined the Greens’ economic strategy:

Austerity is a false economy. If you don’t invest in young people, if you burden them with student debt rather than public investment, that’s why we get the kind of problems we’ve got. Not to mention the mental health crisis that is absolutely rife among young people, because they are really worried about their futures… My priority genuinely is the 99% versus the 1%. And when I say 1% that’s the multi-millionaires and billionaires and the big corporations. If you’re a young person, an older person, a small business or a medium business or even someone out of work, I want to make sure those people know, the Green party’s out there representing them

Asked about increased borrowing, Polanski said:

I think it’s possible we would need to borrow more. Last week I met with Joseph Stigletz, who’s a Nobel winning economist. He talks about when you borrow, there’s a big difference between borrowing for investment and borrowing for consumption

Polanski isn’t going further here and challenging the assumptions of a system where a government needs to borrow in order to finance public services and investment. This can be viewed as a form of corporate welfare because the government is the sovereign issuer of currency (known as ‘fiat’). It sanctions the creation of money so shouldn’t need to rent it from corporations and wealth funds.

Although, when it comes to borrowing for investment, there is a fiscal multiplier impact. For instance, when people are educated, they provide more to their jobs and communities later, leading to a return on education investment. When the government invests in flood defences, the fiscal multiplication is particularly high because it stops later damage to homes and businesses. When you invest in the NHS and bring down waiting lists, you then have a healthy workforce that can contribute to society.

It’s clear from capitalists that fiscal multiplication is the way to go. Wealth managers like BlackRock invest 100% of client money into assets. The government should also be operating with high investment, but for the benefit of the people. Such as through public ownership of essentials and taking public stakes in strategic companies like those in automation and AI, in order to accelerate progress and keep pace with countries like China.

When it comes to Gorton and Denton, the stakes couldn’t be higher. As well as the highly important social impact around BME people, it’s a choice between more neoliberal economic jibberish that has tanked UK society since Thatcher and sound investment policies from the Greens.

Featured image via the Canary