TIG sabotage and media smears have backfired spectacularly according to the latest Labour polling

Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Chuka Umunna


Support us and go ad-free

Despite relentless attacks by the media, Conservatives and The Independent Group (TIG) alike, new polling suggests the British public’s support for the Labour Party is growing.

And the news will make hard reading for TIG, as its strategy of Labour sabotage is proving to be a busted flush.

Lies, damn lies, and political polling

Political polling is notoriously unreliable. And people conveniently pick polls that confirm their own political biases. But the significance of the latest Survation polling is that it was the only company to accurately predict the 2017 General Election.

Its latest polling shows the Conservatives down 5 points and Labour up 3, putting Labour ahead of the Conservatives by 4 percentage points.

According to forecasting by Flavible Politics, this would translate into 303 seats for Labour compared to the Conservatives 255 in an election:

Although recent Survation polling also suggests that Labour isn’t performing as well in Scotland:

Has Labour’s softening on a People’s Vote helped?

It’s hard to know what exactly has caused this shift in the polls. The government finds itself in such chaos that a collapse in its polling was predictable. But some are suggesting that Labour’s support for a potential second referendum (‘people’s vote’) has bolstered its popularity:

Labour warming to a People’s Vote could kill off TIG

In fact, the possibility of Labour supporting a second referendum might have hamstrung TIG. Because a key reason given by MPs for defecting from Labour was its alleged lack of support for a second referendum. But as Labour moves in that direction anyway, people might ask, ‘what’s the point of TIG’s existence?’

On 14 March, TIG MPs supported a motion calling for a people’s vote. However, Labour abstained and it was crushed. But Labour’s actions were predictable, as the motion wasn’t even supported by the official People’s Vote campaign:

Nor was it supported by Corbyn critics in Labour like Peter Kyle:

In fact, the New Statesman‘s Stephen Bush believed the TIG motion was about providing it with election propaganda:

The point being that TIG could frame the Labour Party as saboteurs blocking a second referendum against the will of Labour members. This was evident in an email it sent to supporters after it lost the vote:

The statement reads:

Those of our Group who left the Labour Party did so because we believed the hope of changing the leadership’s position on Brexit was gone. Today, sadly, we were proved right. The leadership are determined to deliver Brexit

But journalist Paul Mason argued this shows a complete lack of political strategy on the part of TIG:

And yet, despite TIG’s attempts to be relevant, the latest polling shows its attacks have had no impact, and may have even backfired.

Labour climbing despite the endless media attacks

Twitter users have pointed out that Labour’s improved polling performance is all the more impressive considering the media’s relentless attacks:

This was obvious again recently with the BBC’s Emily Maitlis. Her mask well and truly slipped when interviewing Labour’s Barry Gardiner. And further evidence also emerged of BBC Question Time’s uncanny ability to pack its audiences full of Conservative Party activists.

Aaron Bastani of Novara Media argues that the BBC, in particular, has now “lost it”. Bastani claims it seems hell-bent on undermining Labour through inaccurate reporting, the exclusion of left-wing voices, and softness on the Conservatives:

Ironically, because of this media bias, many critics doubt whether Survation’s favourable Labour polling will be reported at all:

After all, Question Time’s Fiona Bruce was forced to clarify Labour’s polling position after misrepresenting it previously.

An establishment backlash is coming

Positive Labour polling is often followed by an onslaught of smears and criticism. But as the government rapidly implodes, those smears could be worse still. Because the desperate establishment is increasingly terrified that its gravy train is soon to be derailed by a democratic socialist alternative.

Featured image via YouTube – Vice News, YouTube – Guardian News and YouTube – Good Morning Britain.

We know everyone is suffering under the Tories - but the Canary is a vital weapon in our fight back, and we need your support

The Canary Workers’ Co-op knows life is hard. The Tories are waging a class war against us we’re all having to fight. But like trade unions and community organising, truly independent working-class media is a vital weapon in our armoury.

The Canary doesn’t have the budget of the corporate media. In fact, our income is over 1,000 times less than the Guardian’s. What we do have is a radical agenda that disrupts power and amplifies marginalised communities. But we can only do this with our readers’ support.

So please, help us continue to spread messages of resistance and hope. Even the smallest donation would mean the world to us.

Support us
  • Show Comments

    3. Given the dirty tricks that our mainstream media have been up to for many years on behalf of the Tories, and May’s reluctance to call an election, I think we can assume Labour are polling much better than the published polls suggest too.
      I don’t see the appeal of this independent group. I am a Remain voter but have no problem with Corbyn’s position on Brexit and will certainly be voting Labour at the next election.

      Report comment

    4. A whole article on a single poll showing a very slight Jeremy Corbyn lead?
      A sign of how far away we are from being a government in waiting to take over from the current disastrous Tories.
      Anyone on taking time to read stuff on this site gets the point about the “MSM” as you call it but it is not a free pass for some all shortcomings in labour’s strategy. A winning manifesto needs more to it than simply calling anyone who doesn’t buy into the full Corbyn agenda Tory fascist scum.

      Report comment

    Leave a Reply

    Join the conversation

    Please read our comment moderation policy here.

Related articles