TIG sabotage and media smears have backfired spectacularly according to the latest Labour polling

Despite relentless attacks by the media, Conservatives and The Independent Group (TIG) alike, new polling suggests the British public’s support for the Labour Party is growing.
And the news will make hard reading for TIG, as its strategy of Labour sabotage is proving to be a busted flush.
Lies, damn lies, and political polling
Political polling is notoriously unreliable. And people conveniently pick polls that confirm their own political biases. But the significance of the latest Survation polling is that it was the only company to accurately predict the 2017 General Election.
Its latest polling shows the Conservatives down 5 points and Labour up 3, putting Labour ahead of the Conservatives by 4 percentage points.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (+3)
CON: 35% (-5)
LDEM: 10% ()
UKIP: 5% (-)via @Survation, 15 Mar
Chgs. w/ 18 Feb— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 16, 2019
According to forecasting by Flavible Politics, this would translate into 303 seats for Labour compared to the Conservatives 255 in an election:
Survation – 15th Mar
Lab : 39%
Con : 35%
LDem : 10%
UKIP : 5%Flavible FPTP Projection
Lab : 303 (+41)
Con : 255 (-63)
SNP : 44 (+9)
LDem : 26 (+14)
PC : 3 (-1)
Grn : 1 (=)
Changes with GE2017Interactive Map: https://t.co/RoVsoDZMug pic.twitter.com/95fccyjNt9
— Flavible Politics (@flaviblePolitic) March 16, 2019
Although recent Survation polling also suggests that Labour isn’t performing as well in Scotland:
We recently polled Scottish residents on their voting intention for the next Westminster election. Full tables can be found here: https://t.co/bGcvfceKJg pic.twitter.com/Y9cWJGTFxw
— Survation. (@Survation) March 13, 2019
Has Labour’s softening on a People’s Vote helped?
It’s hard to know what exactly has caused this shift in the polls. The government finds itself in such chaos that a collapse in its polling was predictable. But some are suggesting that Labour’s support for a potential second referendum (‘people’s vote’) has bolstered its popularity:
Biggest boost in Labour’s poll ratings for a long time after we finally came out clearly in favour of a public vote on Tory #BrexitShambles. 😊 #FinalSay #PeoplesVote https://t.co/FkbmMhRyWB
— Ben Bradshaw (@BenPBradshaw) March 16, 2019
Labour warming to a People’s Vote could kill off TIG
In fact, the possibility of Labour supporting a second referendum might have hamstrung TIG. Because a key reason given by MPs for defecting from Labour was its alleged lack of support for a second referendum. But as Labour moves in that direction anyway, people might ask, ‘what’s the point of TIG’s existence?’
On 14 March, TIG MPs supported a motion calling for a people’s vote. However, Labour abstained and it was crushed. But Labour’s actions were predictable, as the motion wasn’t even supported by the official People’s Vote campaign:
When TIG and FBPE come out and try to blame Corbyn, despite this clear request to MPs from PV campaigners circulated today… we all know their game is up.
They don't care about stopping Brexit – they care about stopping Labour under Corbyn.
Ever feel like you've been had? pic.twitter.com/6r0Xws3jNi
— EL4C💥 (@EL4JC) March 14, 2019
Nor was it supported by Corbyn critics in Labour like Peter Kyle:
Today’s vote on another referendum is not the right time or for the right reasons. Neither is it supported by the official ‘People’s Vote’ campaign.
I’m abstaining and will focus on the #Compromise which will bring us together and take Brexit back to the people
— Peter Kyle MP (@peterkyle) March 14, 2019
In fact, the New Statesman‘s Stephen Bush believed the TIG motion was about providing it with election propaganda:
This vote is all about providing a leaflet for SNP, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems and Notorious TIG: every reason to believe it will be effective.
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) March 14, 2019
The point being that TIG could frame the Labour Party as saboteurs blocking a second referendum against the will of Labour members. This was evident in an email it sent to supporters after it lost the vote:
Ding ding! And the winner of the first to email their supporters is…TIG! pic.twitter.com/7Tnjm9Lurs
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) March 14, 2019
The statement reads:
Those of our Group who left the Labour Party did so because we believed the hope of changing the leadership’s position on Brexit was gone. Today, sadly, we were proved right. The leadership are determined to deliver Brexit
But journalist Paul Mason argued this shows a complete lack of political strategy on the part of TIG:
The TIG's defeated second referendum amendment was irrelevant. Its been clear the only route to a PV, one of 2x democratic routes to Remain, is through exhausting all the options. That's why the strategists (as opposed to grandstanders) in the PV campaign opposed it…
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) March 14, 2019
And yet, despite TIG’s attempts to be relevant, the latest polling shows its attacks have had no impact, and may have even backfired.
Labour climbing despite the endless media attacks
Twitter users have pointed out that Labour’s improved polling performance is all the more impressive considering the media’s relentless attacks:
Considering the entire weight of the BBC, ITV, print media is behind the Tories, and that the brexit split gives Tories a default ~50% leave vote anyway, it's absolutely remarkable Labour are anywhere near, let alone in front. Corbyn has done an incredible job as leader.
— Darren🏃🚴🍺🐄 (@dirk1978) March 16, 2019
This was obvious again recently with the BBC’s Emily Maitlis. Her mask well and truly slipped when interviewing Labour’s Barry Gardiner. And further evidence also emerged of BBC Question Time’s uncanny ability to pack its audiences full of Conservative Party activists.
Aaron Bastani of Novara Media argues that the BBC, in particular, has now “lost it”. Bastani claims it seems hell-bent on undermining Labour through inaccurate reporting, the exclusion of left-wing voices, and softness on the Conservatives:
Ironically, because of this media bias, many critics doubt whether Survation’s favourable Labour polling will be reported at all:
Calling on all journalists to like and share this poll and offer a speculative narrative to explain the swing https://t.co/QcY5iVNLLw
— Sam 🌹 (@samfoster99) March 16, 2019
After all, Question Time’s Fiona Bruce was forced to clarify Labour’s polling position after misrepresenting it previously.
An establishment backlash is coming
Positive Labour polling is often followed by an onslaught of smears and criticism. But as the government rapidly implodes, those smears could be worse still. Because the desperate establishment is increasingly terrified that its gravy train is soon to be derailed by a democratic socialist alternative.
Featured image via YouTube – Vice News, YouTube – Guardian News and YouTube – Good Morning Britain.
We need your help ...
The coronavirus pandemic is changing our world, fast. And we will do all we can to keep bringing you news and analysis throughout. But we are worried about maintaining enough income to pay our staff and minimal overheads.
Now, more than ever, we need a vibrant, independent media that holds the government to account and calls it out when it puts vested economic interests above human lives. We need a media that shows solidarity with the people most affected by the crisis – and one that can help to build a world based on collaboration and compassion.
We have been fighting against an establishment that is trying to shut us down. And like most independent media, we don’t have the deep pockets of investors to call on to bail us out.
Can you help by chipping in a few pounds each month?
-
Show Comments
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to leave a comment.Join the conversationPlease read our comment moderation policy here.
“people conveniently pick polls that confirm their own political biases”
No kidding.
Any comment, Tom Watson?
Given the dirty tricks that our mainstream media have been up to for many years on behalf of the Tories, and May’s reluctance to call an election, I think we can assume Labour are polling much better than the published polls suggest too.
I don’t see the appeal of this independent group. I am a Remain voter but have no problem with Corbyn’s position on Brexit and will certainly be voting Labour at the next election.
A whole article on a single poll showing a very slight Jeremy Corbyn lead?
A sign of how far away we are from being a government in waiting to take over from the current disastrous Tories.
Anyone on taking time to read stuff on this site gets the point about the “MSM” as you call it but it is not a free pass for some all shortcomings in labour’s strategy. A winning manifesto needs more to it than simply calling anyone who doesn’t buy into the full Corbyn agenda Tory fascist scum.