One of the world’s biggest banks just predicted the Tory government is going to collapse

Theresa May What
Steve Topple

A major international bank has just given a warning to Theresa May that will be music to the ears of Jeremy Corbyn supporters. Because it has, in no uncertain terms, said that the Conservative government will collapse in 2018; triggering a general election.

No confidence

Morgan Stanley is a multinational bank and investment management company. According to research published in The New Scientist, it is the 21st most powerful corporation on the planet. And the bank has just predicted that, due to Tory in-fighting over Brexit, May’s government will face a “no confidence” vote in parliament.

According to Business Insider, research from Morgan Stanley said May will be able to cling onto power, but just for the rest of 2017:

This year, we think that the government makes enough concessions to allow the talks to progress, and the government holds together since the outcome of the talks is still open and Labour are ahead in the polls…

But the bank reportedly went on to say that:

Next year, however, we think that the government is likely to fall.


As The Canary has documented, the Tory government is at war with itself over Brexit. Conservative MP Anna Soubry has come out saying that May “knows nothing” about possible Brexit revolts by pro-EU MPs in the party. And she said that May needs to “take control” of the situation. Meanwhile, First Secretary of State Damian Green has warned the same pro-EU MPs to “back Brexit or get Jeremy Corbyn”.

And as The Canary also reported, prominent Tory Paul Reynolds quit that party, saying in his resignation that:

If I had my way Mrs May would be led in chains out of Downing Street and placed in stocks in Parliament Square to endure the humiliation she so richly deserves.

Bring it on

All this has led Morgan Stanley to conclude:

We expect the EU to offer a choice between a close relationship in which the UK can participate in the single market and customs union but will be bound by the EU rules of the game, and an arm’s length relationship in the UK, in which the UK achieves full sovereignty over borders, courts and laws, but does not participate in the single market and the customs union.

It said that this ‘perfect storm’:

splits the Cabinet and the Conservative party and will lead to a loss of a vote of no confidence in parliament, triggering early elections.

Corbyn’s moment?

Morgan Stanley’s intervention should not be underestimated. As one of the oldest financial services firms in the world, it would not put out such a stark analysis for the Tory government if it hadn’t hedged its bets on May’s rule collapsing. And with Labour already proactively campaigning in Tory marginals, and the Tory government looking shakier by the day, Corbyn’s moment could be coming sooner rather than later.

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