Support for Scottish independence hits four-year high under Starmer

In a fresh embarrassment for Keir Starmer, support for Scottish independence has hit a four-year polling high. This means it’s more popular under Starmer than it was under Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson, and – heaven help us – Liz Truss:

🚨 NEW Scottish independence voting intention

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Yes – 54%
🇬🇧 No – 46%

Via @NorstatUKPolls pic.twitter.com/PS8mwqqQqG

— indy swim 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (@indy_swim) December 7, 2024

Scottish independence

It’s been a tumultuous few years for the Scottish independence movement. The SNP was a dominant force in Scotland that seemed to be pushing towards another independence referendum under Nicola Sturgeon. Momentum on that front stalled if not reversed, however, with Sturgeon ousted and investigated, and the SNP losing ground to rival parties in the 2024 general election (among many other issues) . With the new Labour Party government having already squandered its goodwill, however, it seems like many Scots are once again thinking they deserve better than what England keeps offering.

The ever-excellent Stats for Lefties showed how the new poll would translate into seats if it held until the upcoming 2026 Holyrood elections:

❗️ NEW: Poll suggests crushing Holyrood win for SNP

🟨 SNP 60 (-4)
🟥 LAB 20 (-2)
🟦 CON 17 (-14)
🟪 REF 12 (+12)
🟧 LD 12 (+8)
🟩 GRN 8 (-)

My estimate based on new @NorstatUKPolls poll. pic.twitter.com/ac8VDZmcN3

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) December 7, 2024

If the SNP do win by a 40-seat margin, it would be the biggest margin of victory (in seats) for any party in the history of the Scottish Parliament.

A four-way split in unionist vote would allow SNP to grab 59 of 73 constituency seats (81%) with just 37% of votes

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) December 7, 2024

The National reported on the latest polling bump, noting:

Emma Harper (above), SNP MSP for South Scotland, said: “Increasing support for independence is a sign that the people of Scotland know that Westminster, no matter who is in government, is failing them – a better future as an independent nation is possible.”

It comes after the Scottish Budget last week, which saw the SNP pledge to abolish the two-child benefit cap and a calamitous start to Keir Starmer’s premiership.

The SNP have also pledged to introduce a replacement for the universal Winter Fuel Payment scheme, scrapped by Labour.

If the primary job of the Scottish government is countering the mistakes of the Westminster government, then obviously many Scots are going to ask why they need their English overlords in the first place.

Co-leader of the Scottish Greens Patrick Harvie was particularly critical of Starmer and his time in office:

For years we’ve had the Labour Party telling us that Scotland didn’t need independence, and that all we had to do was wait until Keir Starmer was in Downing Street.

Well we’ve seen what that looks like, and it means the same disastrous Brexit as the Tories, the continuation of the cruel two-child cap and plunging pensioners into poverty during a long cold winter.

Independence is about having the ability to make our own choices and to make different choices.

As you might imagine, the growing support is resonating with online independence activists:

Yes!!!!!! #indyref2 https://t.co/H0Jlwmfx9E

— Cllr Fatima (Zahra) Joji 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (@fatima_joji) December 8, 2024

Two sides of the same crooked order

In years gone by, you’d see some independence supporters arguing that the Tories were better for their movement. After all, the worse the Tories made things, the more independence looked like the most viable option. This was always a fairly cynical argument, but the biggest flaw turns out to be a failure to predict how poorly New Labour 2.0 would perform:

🚨 Poll hints at worst Labour result since 1935 👇

🟦 CON 221 (+100)
🟥 LAB 175 (-236)
🟪 REF 121 (+116)
🟧 LD 67 (-5)
🟨 SNP 25 (+16)
🟩 GRN 6 (+2)

Based on @FindoutnowUK poll, 4 Dec (+/- vs GE2024) pic.twitter.com/Ymh23K8VyS

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) December 5, 2024

With the only options from England seemingly Tory or Tory-lite, it’s no wonder many Scots think they can do better.

Featured image via Sky News