Covid-19: When will we get out of lockdown?

The Canary

Experts disagree on how long it could take to lift the UK’s restrictions on daily life fully, but most are hoping some will ease over the summer.

Are we in for the long haul?

It seems so, yes. England’s deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries has suggested normal life will not resume for at least six months.

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia (UEA), says it is plausible that if lots of people have had the virus already, restrictions could ease in June.

However, he says that is a big if and nobody can really predict the end of the epidemic.

What does it depend on?

Experts agree there needs to be mass testing to get an idea of how many people have the virus at present and how many have had it (an antibody test).

At present, it is not known how many cases are occurring in the community. If people could be tested and given the all-clear, they could get back to work and to their daily lives.

Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, says the priority is likely to be getting people back to work so that “we can restore a functioning economy”.

He adds: “This would start to increase usage of the transport system and the consequences could be carefully monitored.”

Does that mean restrictions could all be lifted at once?

No. Prof Hunter says the UK could start lifting restrictions gradually. It could also base them on people’s exposure and whether they are immune or not, thanks to testing.

But, if the UK relaxes restrictions too soon, there will be another peak of the virus.

He says: “I think what will happen is that (infection numbers) will go down in June and we’ll start relaxing our controls in June.

“In the summer, I think there will be some transmission but not so much.

“We will then get another peak in September and October, but the second peak won’t be as dreadful as the first one… and we should have drug treatments by the autumn that will stop people developing such serious illness.

“If we have antibody tests, it also means we only have to start worrying about people who are still susceptible to the virus.”

HEALTH Coronavirus
(PA Graphics)

What about my summer holiday?

Prof Dingwall says there “is just too much uncertainty” to predict when restrictions might be lifted.

He says when restrictions lift, it would be sensible to restore a certain amount of leisure travel, at least on a regional basis, to revive the tourism and hospitality sector.

“Older and vulnerable people can make their own risk assessments against this general background – the personal risks will vary a lot according to where they live and what they need to do,” he says.

But he predicts that international travel will not resume properly until next summer. Prof Hunter is hopeful it could be much sooner than that.

Is the only true way out of this a vaccine?

Prof Dingwall says yes.

“One of the things that worries me is that governments seem to be encouraging the belief that once we have had this period of sacrifice, the virus will have gone away,” he says.

“The most we can achieve is to have enough people to have been infected that the virus circulates at a much lower level, much like seasonal influenza, and we can adjust the capacity of the NHS to deal with outbreaks when they occur.

“Once a safe, effective and affordable vaccine is available – and I am quite sceptical about the idea that this can be delivered within 18-24 months, a huge global effort will be required to eradicate it.”

We need your help ...

The coronavirus pandemic is changing our world, fast. And we will do all we can to keep bringing you news and analysis throughout. But we are worried about maintaining enough income to pay our staff and minimal overheads.

Now, more than ever, we need a vibrant, independent media that holds the government to account and calls it out when it puts vested economic interests above human lives. We need a media that shows solidarity with the people most affected by the crisis – and one that can help to build a world based on collaboration and compassion.

We have been fighting against an establishment that is trying to shut us down. And like most independent media, we don’t have the deep pockets of investors to call on to bail us out.

Can you help by chipping in a few pounds each month?

The Canary Support us
  • Show Comments
    1. I’m disabled so I depend on click & collect I’ve been having to book at least two weeks ahead and pay for my shopping my carer went to pick up my shopping and she went into tesco Newton Abbot to get some shopping for herself and her daughter who is also support worker she got to till with her basket leaving a two metre gap next thing she knows some selfish idiot with a full tolley pushing in front of in the gap she left she asked them what do think you doing you are meant to leave a two metre they ignored her she went to another till the same thing happened again four times in total and a tesco worker had at her for not keeping the two metres distance my carer was not happy told what was happening that is carer a young man in front of the selfish idiot that just pushed to gap turned round and said to her please take my place I’m not in a hurry it not fair that tesco woman just spoke to you especially as are a supporter helping people which meant idiot had to move back to let her take his place with everyone looking at them. The security know her they were coming over to see she was okay because they heard what the tesco worker said to her. She has made a formal complaint about the woman. The same thing happened to one the agency carers I’ve in at weekends and she was in uniform. How are they meant to keep this two metre gap? I have family and friends who work for NHS who struggling to find things on the shelves I know two people who are struggling to find nappies for their babies.

    Leave a Reply

    Join the conversation

    Please read our comment moderation policy here.