The coup wants you to believe Labour is too weak to win an election, but there’s a problem

This is based [pdf] on a methodology of calculating:

published data tables from YouGov polls conducted between October and December 2016 (7 polls, combined sample of 11,680).

The methodology then notes [pdf] that:

The Fabian Society’s estimate for the number of voters supporting each party (in 2015 and today) was calculated by scaling up the weighted number of YouGov respondents who said they voted for the four main GB parties in 2015, to match the number of actual votes cast for those parties. There are limitations to this methodology, but these impact the results for all the parties.

So this means that:

4 million people who voted for the party in 2015 (44 per cent) would not vote Labour today.

But this statement is immediately contradicted in the following sentence:

Some of this group have switched their allegiance to other parties, but more than half say they are undecided or would not vote.

In other words, over 2 million of these people haven’t made up their minds who they are voting for. It is unknown. And they could therefore still be Labour voters.

The problem with polls

Firstly, as the last two years have shown, polls are not always to be trusted. Whether it was David Cameron’s 2015 victory, the Brexit vote, or Donald Trump’s electoral win, reliance on polls is looking increasingly shaky.

And it is interesting to note that the analysis does not include the surge in Labour membership following both of Corbyn’s leadership battles. The Labour Party in the UK now has the biggest membership of any western European political party.

But even if the polls are to be believed, there is also no reflection in the analysis about what effect the coup, orchestrated by many supporters of the Fabian Society, had on the popularity of the Labour Party. The resignation of senior ministers and internal battles are never going to be the basis for winning elections.

Troubles ahead

There will be many trials and tests for Labour in the weeks, months and years ahead. These include the forthcoming by-election in Copeland in West Cumbria, where anti-Corbyn MP Jamie Reed resigned days before Christmas. And as the report points out, how Labour positions itself on Brexit could also be crucial. There is also the question of whether those in the Parliamentary Labour Party finally accept Corbyn’s leadership rather than fostering further divisions and coups.

But with an increased membership and a drive to do things differently, Labour does not seem to be as “stuck” as this report suggests. And it is far too early to write Corbyn’s party off with doom and gloom prophecies just yet. Especially when this analysis comes from an organisation that has remained so closely aligned to Tony Blair’s supporters in the party.

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