Both the EU and Morgan Stanley have predicted that the Conservative Party will soon collapse. And a new poll published by Survation lends credit to this claim. As Labour is now 8 points ahead of the Conservatives in terms of political support.
The next general election could be soon
Morgan Stanley has said of the Conservatives that:
With a minority government torn over Europe and facing a divisive choice between ‘taking back control’ and maintaining close links, we see another early election as likely.
Economists at the bank argue, based on their research, that the next general election will be in 2018. And if Labour’s lead over the Conservatives maintains, this could change everything. As Survation points out:
We’ve not seen such a lead for Labour in a Survation poll since late 2013. An 8 point lead would put the Labour party into overall majority territory if such vote share totals were reflected at the ballot box.
Different findings
But not all polls reveal the same findings as Survation. For example, a Kantar survey shows 42% of respondents would vote Tory, with 38% voting Labour; Opinium says Labour are two points ahead, and the last YouGov poll puts Labour three points ahead.
Survation claims its methodology is reliable, since its:
final online and telephone polling for GE 2017 had the “correct answer” – a small Conservative lead over Labour and a hung parliament…
A collapsing party
The EU said the Conservative Party is collapsing because it is losing key Cabinet ministers and is in disarray over Brexit negotiations. Meanwhile, the Democratic Unionist Party, which is propping up May’s minority government, is threatening to withdraw its support over issues with the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
Chaos and tension within the Conservative Party could make the EU’s predictions come true. And if we can trust Survation’s latest political poll, then collapsing support for the party could spell bad news for the party in the next general election.
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