Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has revealed when he thinks he will become prime minister. In an interview with Grazia magazine, Corbyn predicted “there will probably be another election in the next 12 months”. He continued: “I will probably win. I’m ready to be prime minister tomorrow.”
The next 12 months
The interview comes amid strong polling for Labour. In a poll conducted by the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), Labour won another jump in young supporters. Prior to the general election in June, 55% of 18-to-24-year-olds stated they would vote Labour. But in the December survey, that figure jumped to 68%. This is Labour’s highest ever showing in a HEPI poll.
The poll is bad news for the Conservatives, who lost to Labour in every demographic under the age of 50 in the June general election.
To turn things around, the Conservatives should be picking up voters in those groups, but they are not. In October, a study by BMG Research placed Labour ahead of the Tories by 42% to 37%. And worse, it showed Jeremy Corbyn had pulled two points ahead of Theresa May in personal popularity too.
What do we have to do to get an election?
a) a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two thirds of the whole House or without division; or
b) a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is confirmed by the Commons within 14 days.
There are many barriers to either of these things happening prior to 2022. But given the civil war underway in the Conservative Party, and its shaky alliance with the DUP – anything is possible.
May’s plans to avoid parliamentary scrutiny of the final Brexit deal were scuppered by 11 rebels in her own party last week; which pitted the right-wing press against the less EU-sceptic wing of the party too, drawing fire from Corbyn and Labour. And nearly 18 months into the Brexit process, the May government still has no answers on the biggest questions: the Irish border, the Single Market, or the Customs Union. She has also failed to secure a single trade deal outside of the EU to signal post-Brexit opportunities. Furthermore, any hopes that May would retain the best of EU law (the laws that protect people’s working and human rights) have been dashed.
With all this at play, it is possible that the May government will collapse under the weight of its own discord. And if it does, it’s difficult to see how the Conservatives could keep Corbyn out of Number 10.
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Featured image via Wikimedia Commons
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