A shock poll reveals exactly what could bring down Theresa May’s government

Theresa May

This article was updated at 10.26 on 10 June. It previously stated that the Conservative government would lose its majority should Northern Ireland vote for unification. It’s now been updated to reflect the fact that the government would lose its “confidence and supply” agreement with the DUP in those circumstances, which currently gives it a majority in parliament. The concluding sentence has also been edited to reflect this.

A new opinion poll reveals that support for a united Ireland in Northern Ireland has jumped to a shock 42.1%. If this upward trend continues and eventually leads to a united Ireland, the British government could collapse.

Confidence and supply

Theresa May’s Conservative party relies on Northern Ireland’s DUP to govern, having reached a so-called “confidence and supply” agreement. It has also been called a “cash-for-votes” deal. It sees the DUP voting in favour of government on key votes in parliament. In return, the government has promised £1bn of extra funding to Northern Ireland.

The agreement gives May’s party a small majority in parliament. But in the event of a united Ireland, the DUP would no longer sit in the House of Commons. Without its support, the Conservative party would lose its DUP deal, which could trigger a general election.

Simmering discontent

28% of respondents to the opinion poll said that they are now more likely to support a united Ireland because of Brexit. Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a majority of 56%. And since the vote, the government’s management of the Irish border issue has provoked discontent.

People in Northern Ireland are anxious about the threat of a hard border. Some industries have called it a “huge concern”. But the government’s solutions often appear flawed. Even foreign secretary Boris Johnson described his own government’s approach as “beyond belief“.

The Good Friday Agreement

As the UK economy worsens, Ireland’s is the fastest growing in Europe. So it is little wonder that people in Northern Ireland are starting to think that they would be better off outside the UK.

Read on...

The Good Friday Agreement allows for a referendum on Irish reunification. It stipulates that Irish reunification can take place:

with and subject to the agreement and consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland.

Given the government’s constant in-fighting, and accusations that its Brexit management is “beyond amateur” and “incompetent“, a referendum on a united Ireland could happen soon.

And if Ireland reunites, the Conservative government as it stands could be in jeopardy.

Get Involved!

– Support The Canary, so we can keep bringing you the stories that matter.

Featured image via Annika Haas

We need your help to keep speaking the truth

Every story that you have come to us with; each injustice you have asked us to investigate; every campaign we have fought; each of your unheard voices we amplified; we do this for you. We are making a difference on your behalf.

Our fight is your fight. You’ve supported our collective struggle every time you gave us a like; and every time you shared our work across social media. Now we need you to support us with a monthly donation.

We have published nearly 2,000 articles and over 50 films in 2021. And we want to do this and more in 2022 but we don’t have enough money to go on at this pace. So, if you value our work and want us to continue then please join us and be part of The Canary family.

In return, you get:

* Advert free reading experience
* Quarterly group video call with the Editor-in-Chief
* Behind the scenes monthly e-newsletter
* 20% discount in our shop

Almost all of our spending goes to the people who make The Canary’s content. So your contribution directly supports our writers and enables us to continue to do what we do: speaking truth, powered by you. We have weathered many attempts to shut us down and silence our vital opposition to an increasingly fascist government and right-wing mainstream media.

With your help we can continue:

* Holding political and state power to account
* Advocating for the people the system marginalises
* Being a media outlet that upholds the highest standards
* Campaigning on the issues others won’t
* Putting your lives central to everything we do

We are a drop of truth in an ocean of deceit. But we can’t do this without your support. So please, can you help us continue the fight?

The Canary Support us

Comments are closed