An opinion poll shows the chaos facing the Conservative Party

Theresa May looking down
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The Conservative Party is in chaos, with Theresa May on the ropes. But one opinion poll has effectively fanned the flames.

Confidence? What confidence?

On Wednesday 12 December, the Conservative Party revealed it was having a confidence vote in May. The 1922 committee has got the 48 letters asking for a vote it required to trigger the ballot. The vote comes amid the unrest surrounding May’s Brexit deal with the EU. But it has been brewing for some time.

As Reuters reported:

May could be toppled if a simple majority [158] of Conservative lawmakers [MPs] vote against her, though a significant rebellion could also undermine her position. However, at least 174 of her 315 lawmakers had indicated public support for her by 1420 GMT.

But if May does go, it’s already not looking good for her replacement.

Conservative chaos

As Channel 4 News‘s Ciaran Jenkins tweeted:

Read on...

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Oh dear. Meanwhile, the latest odds on the next Conservative leader (as of 11am on 12 December) have Boris Johnson out in front. Don’t all scream at once:

Conservative leader betting odds

But who out of these ‘runners and riders’ could actually be the next PM if May gets toppled?

Boris Johnson has always been critical of May’s Brexit stance. As the Metro reported, he’s refused to rule out standing against May. Meanwhile, ITV News says former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has a “good relationship” with the EU’s chief negotiator.

Then we have Sajid Javid, He has already tweeted his support for May:

But that doesn’t mean he won’t betray her in a secret ballot. As the Express reported, he’s apparently already been ‘plotting’ a leadership bid.

Michael Gove has also tweeted his support for May:

As has Amber Rudd:

Rock. Hard place. Stuck.

So odds on is Johnson, although if Javid becomes a turncoat then anything is possible. And all the while in the background you have Jacob Rees-Mogg laughing his head off.

But while the Conservative Party has quite a few potential candidates to choose from, none of them is popular with the public. So, the Tories are effectively picking if they’d prefer sickness or diarrhoea – because none of the outcomes of the confidence vote looks healthy for them.

Featured image via BBC News – YouTube

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