More evidence emerges that the media’s much-hyped ‘Boris bounce’ is falling flat

Boris Johnson on The Andrew Marr show
Wilson Belshaw


Following some recent polling, a lot of the media has been hyping up the ‘Boris bounce’. While the whole thing may have been over-hyped, there’s now evidence that Johnson is falling flat regardless.

Boris splat

A poll from Ipsos/Mori showed a 10-point poll lead for the Conservatives. But as Owen Jones explained, it’s not quite so simple:

 

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Can Labour energise support like Jones suggests? The 2017 general election – when stricter anti-bias reporting kicked in – saw Labour increase its vote share by more than it had since 1945. Labour also got young people out – a demographic which is usually considered ‘unlikely’ to vote.

Keiran Pedley of Ipsos/Mori got into the findings some more:

Addressing the first point, the public having an unfavourable view of Corbyn being PM isn’t new. This is a YouGov poll showing the public’s view of Corbyn and May before the 2017 general election:

Pedley also reported:

Things getting worse would be bad news for Johnson – especially as things are already much worse than before the Conservatives took power in 2010. In 2017, Labour presented a manifesto that dealt with issues created by successive Conservative (and New Labour) governments, and also looked to the future. The public “overwhelmingly” backed it. In an election, Johnson wouldn’t just be fighting Labour; he’d also be fighting his own party’s record.

Brecon beating

Meanwhile, the by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire saw the Liberal Democrats unseat the Conservative Party:

While clearly a good result for the Liberal Democrats, it’s perhaps not as clear as some people are making out. John Rentoul wrote for the Independent:

Yesterday’s vote makes it slightly more difficult for Boris Johnson to push his “do or die” Brexit through parliament, which may, paradoxically, make a general election after October more likely.

The result could also mean Johnson has to work with the Brexit Party to win a general election, thus making “do or die” Brexit more likely. As it’s looking increasingly impossible for Johnson to make Brexit happen with our current parliament, an election may be the only way of breaking the deadlock.

The results clearly show one thing, though – namely that the ‘Boris bounce’ is failing to get much lift:

That hasn’t stopped the media claiming otherwise, of course:

The loss in Brecon means the Conservative government has a majority of just one.

There’s more bad news, too. A poll taken before the by-election showed that Johnson and his administration already aren’t resonating with the public. This is even before a general election, when they’d be more rigorously held accountable for their work in government:

Bring it on

The ‘Boris bounce’ was over-hyped, unlikely to make much difference in an election, and is already falling flat. The view from the left should be the same as ever – the sooner we go back to the polls the better.

Featured image via screengrab

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