A new study has revealed that all of Theresa May’s Brexit deals will leave us worse off

Theresa May superimposed over the UK and EU flags
Support us and go ad-free

A thinktank has warned that any deal Theresa May does with the EU over Brexit will leave the UK worse off in the long run.

Economic modelling

The thinktank Global Future has analysed each of the four possible deals the PM has tabled. These are leaving the EU but:

  • Remaining part of the European Economic Area (EEA); the ‘Norway model’.
  • Securing a standard Free Trade Agreement (FTA); the ‘Canada model’.
  • Having a ‘smooth’ [pdf, p4] no deal using World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
  • Securing May’s ‘bespoke’ FTA; her preferred option.

Global Future worked out how much each deal would reduce money available for public spending by. It found that [pdf, p2], by 2033/34, the models would cost us, per week (in 2018 prices):

  • EEA model: £260m.
  • FTA model: £875m.
  • WTO model: £1.25bn.
  • Government preferred bespoke model: £615m.

Brexit versus public spending

It also put the figures into the context of current NHS spending, and found that the models would cut [pdf, p2] NHS spending by 9%, 31%, 44% and 22% respectively. In terms of broader public spending, Global Futures noted [pdf, p7] the 2018 weekly cost of various department versus the cost of each deal:

The weekly cost of the four possible Brexit scenarios

A price worth paying?

In conjunction with its report, Global Future also conducted public polling about its findings. It said:

Leavers and the public at large reject every Brexit deal modelled by government, and ministers’ own preferred scenario (EEA, FTA, WTO, a bespoke deal), as ‘Too High a Price’ to leave the EU by enormous majorities.

Read on...

Support us and go ad-free

The vast majority of Leavers regard each deal as worse than they had hoped when voting to Leave the EU.

Finally, we asked voted [sic], if forced to choose which deal they would like to leave the EU both Leavers (narrowly), and the public at large (by a significant distance), chose the EEA model (the so-called Norway option) as their preferred deal of those on the table.

Jonathan Portes, the professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, London carried out the research. He told the Guardian:

If we are to decide what sort of Brexit we want, the least we need is a menu, with prices. The one we have prepared represents the government’s current best estimates. It’s up to us to decide which of these prices is worth paying.

Featured image via George Hodan/Public Domain Pictures and Annika Haas/Wikimedia

Support us and go ad-free

Do your bit for independent journalism

Did you know that less than 1.5% of our readers contribute financially to The Canary? Imagine what we could do if just a few more people joined our movement to achieve a shared vision of a free and fair society where we nurture people and planet.

We need you to help out, if you can.

When you give a monthly amount to fund our work, you are supporting truly independent journalism. We hold power to account and have weathered many attempts to shut us down and silence the counterpoint to the mainstream.

You can count on us for rigorous journalism and fearless opposition to an increasingly fascist government and right wing mainstream media.

In return you get:

  • Advert free reading experience
  • Behind the scenes monthly e-newsletter
  • 20% discount from our shop

 

The Canary Fund us

Comments are closed